Villain falls as hunch correct

I was recently in Mexico for some vacation time and to play in the PokerStars Turbo Championship of Online Poker.

Early in the main event, I found myself in the big blind with As Qd and 20,470 in chips from a starting stack of 20,000. Blinds were 60-120 with an ante of 15, and the initial raiser in middle position made it 240 to go. The player in the cutoff called, and I called from the big blind.

The flop came Qc 10h 6c. It’s always good to have top pair/top kicker. However, I easily could have had the worst hand. I’d lose to A-A, K-K, Q-Q, 10-10, 6-6 and Q-10. I could safely assume my opponents didn’t have Q-6 or 10-6. I’d tie A-Q, clobber K-Q and Q-J, and I’d have a lot of cards to dodge vs. hands like A-x of clubs, K-J and J-9.

I checked, the initial raiser bet just over half the pot, the next player called, and it was my turn. I could call, but there were a lot of potentially bad turn cards for my hand. Folding would be a terrible play. I could raise, but I wouldn’t be happy if I were reraised, because I had only one pair and there were many hands that could beat me.

But what would either of my opponents reraise me with? A set, obviously, but it’s hard to make a set. I didn’t think I’d be reraised by A-A, K-K or AQ. Two pair would pop me, but I felt there was only one such hand possible. There were many hands suited in clubs that one of my opponents would be willing to reraise with, and either of them conceivably could raise with hands such as K-J or J-9.

There were so many bad turn cards, though, that I didn’t like the idea of calling and seeing a turn. But my hand was strong, and I believed that it was best, so I decided to raise for value. If they folded, fine. If they called, then I’d know some things. I made it 1,555.

The initial raiser reraised to 3,260. I actually liked this. It narrowed his range to two pair or better, a semi-bluff with clubs and/or a straight draw, or total air. I thought he’d call with one-pair hands and some draws, but his raise meant something. The other player folded, and I called.

Based on my reads, there was merit to reraising, but I’d simply get crushed by a better hand or have neutral equity vs. a combo draw. He’d fold his bluffs and worse hands, and I still wanted him to put more money in the pot if he had the worst hand.

The turn was the 9h. I checked and the villain checked. That had to be good news.

We went to the river, and it was the 7h. A backdoor heart draw got there, as did a straight draw with K-J, but K-J probably would have bet the turn. Based on the flop action, I could safely assume that if I were beaten, it wasn’t by one pair. And based on the turn action, I could assume that my opponent didn’t have two pair or better.

There weren’t many hands that would call that were worse than mine, but I thought I could let him bluff again. I checked, and the villain bet 4,440. I made the easy call and won the pot, beating his Ac Jd.