Is Jeb Bush still a GOP contender?
Analysis: It’ll be a long shot, but voters want political experience
WASHINGTON — Jeb Bush can become a leading Republican presidential candidate. It’s going to be tough, but hardly impossible.
More and more, voters want someone with government experience and sound political judgment. As election days get closer, they’ll seek more depth and nuance about issues. And Bush and his backers also bring a huge pile of campaign cash and a proven network of insiders well-schooled in politics and policy.
Bush remains a long shot, and polls still show him mired deep in single digits. The good news for Bush? “You’re seeing a little of that (some gains) now,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which surveys in New Hampshire, the nation’s first primary state.
Bush, the former Florida governor, has noted that his father, George H.W. Bush, was far down in Republican presidential polls in 1979, but won the Iowa caucus in January 1980. He wound up as Ronald Reagan’s vice presidential running mate that year, and eight years later was elected president.
Here’s why they could be right — even though all signs at the moment point the other way:
1. Experience matters. Since the Paris attacks, “people who have some political experience have benefited,” said Paleologos. “Voters want someone more methodical, who can navigate the political landscape.”
2. Voters get serious. Polls in early voting states say most Republican voters have yet to make a final decision. 2016 could be follow- ing a familiar pattern: Early front-runners are the candidates who best express voters’ frustration and outrage, but when it comes time to vote, they pick the more somber candidate best suited for the world’s most powerful position.
3. Florida beckons. Suppose, as is quite possible, the February contests produce no clear front-runner. On March 15, five big states, including Florida, vote. Bush has won two statewide elections in Florida, and should he win the state’s primary that day and do well elsewhere he could emerge as the mainstream Republican favorite. As the race then moves to New York, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, California and other less conservative states, it could become a battle with Trump or another favorite of staunch conservatives, and Bush would be well-positioned.
4. Command of issues. Bush can talk with authority on taxes, immigration and a wide variety of issues as few of his rivals can. He can cite his Florida record as a consistent but not doctrinaire conservative.
5. Money counts. Bush and his supporters raised an estimated $127 million through Sept. 30, more than anyone else. On March 1, Republicans in 11 states vote. Advertising and organization will matter.