It pays to calculate pot odds

Don’t draw to an inside straight. It’s timeless poker wisdom. If you continually put money in when the odds aren’t in your favor, such as drawing to a gutshot, you will ultimately end up a loser.

Instead, successful poker players wait patiently to invest their chips when they’re getting the right odds, which in the long run will lead to a return on investment.

Admittedly, math can be intimidating, especially to amateur players. The good news is that pot odds are simple to calculate. They are merely the ratio of the size of the pot to the cost of a contemplated call.

Let me give you an example of a hand where pot odds were on display. It happened on Day 5 of the 2015 World Series of Poker in Las Vegas. The blinds were at 12,000-24,000 when Chad Power raised to 50,000 from early position holding Jh 10d. Action folded to Sal Dicarlo, who called from the big blind with Ac 8c.

The flop of 9c Kc 4d saw Dicarlo check his flush draw, which actually made him a 78 percent favorite. Power made a continuation bet of 40,000.

Dicarlo made the call, and then checked for a second time on the Qh turn, which completed Power’s gutshot straight.

Note that Power wasn’t exactly chasing an inside straight draw. Instead, he had control of the hand and was the one with the betting lead. There’s a big difference between betting draws with the chance your opponent will fold and calling off chips in the hope of hitting a hand. Anyway, Power bet 115,000 into a pot of 228,000, a little more than half the pot.

At this point there were theoretically nine cards in the deck (all the remaining clubs) that would give Dicarlo the win. Assuming none of those cards were either mucked by other players or lay in Power’s hand, Dicarlo had a 20 percent chance of hitting one of his cards on the river, or 4-1 odds (an 80 percent chance of losing vs. 20 percent chance of winning, hence the 4-1 ratio). However, with 343,000 in the pot, Dicarlo was only getting about 3-1 odds by investing a further 115,000, making it the wrong move.

“It’s actually a pretty good bet from Power making it tempting for Dicarlo to call with the wrong pot odds,” commentator Norman Chad pointed out on the ESPN broadcast. Of course, that failed to take into account expected value (EV), which would be any additional chips Dicarlo might be able to win later in the hand if he made his hand on the river.

As it happened, Dicarlo called and missed when the 6h came on the river. Dicarlo checked, Power bet 500,000, and Dicarlo quickly folded.

If drawing to either a straight or a flush, make sure you’re getting the right odds. Even if you’re not math expert, knowing how to calculate simple pot odds can go a long way to improving your poker game. Invest wisely.