Will early starts calm Black Friday crowds?

Many of the largest merchants are continuing their strategy of opening on Thanksgiving Day

NEW YORK — Black Friday used to kick off the holiday shopping season, but now that day has taken a back seat to Thanksgiving Day, though retailers have settled into times that don’t interfere with the turkey feast.

After opening earlier and earlier on the holiday, this year, most major retailers such as Macy’s, Target and Kohl’s are sticking with their 5 or 6 p.m. Thanksgiving openings.

One big exception: J.C. Penney, which opened at 3 p.m. on the holiday. And sporting goods chain REI, which was always closed on Thanksgiving, is bowing out of Black Friday, too.

Still, stores aren’t waiting around to push discounts on holiday goods until the official weekend. Increasingly, they’ve been discounting holiday merchandise earlier in the month. According to the National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, nearly 60 percent of holiday shoppers have already started holiday shopping by Nov. 10.

The retail federation estimates about 135.8 million people will shop this weekend, compared with 133.7 million last year. The trade group expects about 30 million to shop on Thanksgiving, compared with 99.7 million on Black Friday. Overall, the group expects a 3.7 percent increase to $630.5 billion though the growth is much higher than the 10-year average of 2.5 percent.