How California governor’s race may sway presidential election

I didn’t fully appreciate the importance of this year’s California race for governor until my conversation Wednesday with Stanford political science Professor Bruce Cain.

My focus had been on the critical decision of who would best drive the state’s future. I’ve been looking for someone with a bold, innovative vision for solving California’s most pressing issues. Someone who would build on Gov. Jerry Brown’s work bringing economic stability back to the state budget.

But Cain drove home the importance for Democrats and Republicans of the gubernatorial race on the 2020 presidential election .

California moved its primary election in 2020 to the beginning of March, three months ahead of when it was held in 2016. It’s a change designed to give the state more influence on the country’s most important issues.

“If there is a path for (Donald) Trump to win re-election, despite all his missteps, it will be because of dysfunction on the other side,” said Cain. “It’s important to remember that presidential elections are always about comparison.”

So the last thing California Democrats need is dysfunction. If they can’t govern effectively here leading up to the 2020 election, Cain said, Republicans will use the state as an example of everything that can go wrong with Democrats in charge.

Thus, this year’s pick for governor could help determine the next presidential election. A Public Policy Institute of California poll released Thursday establishes Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Assembly Speaker and Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, both Democrats, as front-runners.

Newsom leads with 23 percent of likely voters; Villaraigosa has 21 percent. Then there’s state Treasurer John Chiang, a Democrat, 9 percent; Republican Assemblyman Travis Allen, 8 percent; Republican businessman John Cox, 7 percent; Democrat Delaine Eastin, the former state superintendent of public instruction, 4 percent; and Republican Doug Ose, a former congressman, 3 percent.

It’s early. The challenge now for voters, and for us, is to determine where the candidates stand on the critical issues facing the state:

• Housing. The Legislature passed 15 bills in September designed to improve the state’s housing crisis. But debate continues on whether they are enough to stimulate construction of sufficient affordable housing for the next generation of Californians.

• Water. The Brown administration announced on Wednesday that it’s scaling back — at last — the governor’s massive, $17-billion twin-tunnel plan to a single tunnel for conveying water from north to south. Can any of the candidates do what no one has yet accomplished: articulate a plan that generates statewide support?

• Transportation. Voterswill decide in November the fate of the state’s new gas tax. The next governor will determine whether to continue funding Brown’s high-speed-rail project. And Bay Area traffic congestion has grown by 84 percent since 2010. Which candidate can address California’s transportation needs without blowing a big hole in the state budget?

• Pensions. It is the No. 1 issue for the next governor to address and also the issue candidates will go to the greatest lengths to avoid. Brown made an effort to tackle the challenge, but he will probably leave his successor with a shortfall ofmore than $150 billion in the California Public Employees’ Retirement System.

• Education. The governor proposed an ambitious education agenda in his final state budget, throwing hundreds of millions of dollars toward K-12 schools. But Californians aren’t seeing the satisfactory results in test scores they desire. And the state’s higher education schools have their own set of problems. Should California chart yet another new course for its schools?

• Health care. California is under siege from both ends of the political spectrum. While President Trump and a GOP Congress are doing everything possible to take away federal health care dollars, progressives in California are pushing just as hard for the state to adopt a governmentrun, single-payer system.

• Taxes. The state’s reliance on its income tax results in unenviable budget instability. Meanwhile, lawmakers must devise a plan for responding to the federal tax changes that negatively impact California.

• Climate change. Brown, by default, is the nation’s leader in promoting the fight against global warming. To what extent will the next governor extend that legacy?

These are all tough policy choices. How the candidates, and the state, address them will send a message to the rest of the country about our ability to confront challenges — about whether we’re moving forward or mired in dysfunction. Ed Clendaniel is editor of The Mercury News Editorial Pages. Email him at eclendaniel@ bayareanewsgroup.com. Follow him on Twitter at @ EdClendaniel.