Bet-sizing crucial in setting up a bluff

When considering whether to bluff a river, it’s not just a matter of courage. It requires an understanding of your opponent’s reads, hand range and intentions.

Appropriate bet-sizing either gets opponents to do what we want them to do, or it gives us the information we need to accomplish that goal on a later street. We’ve all reraised an opponent in position with a less-than-reraise-quality hand. We might do so to win the pot immediately if we think an opponent might fold. If that doesn’t work, we’re still in position to maintain pressure, under the guise of having a stronger holding than we actually do.

Let’s say an opponent with an averagesized stack of 15,000 raises to 150 (three times the big blind) from late position. We reraise to 400 from the button with Ah 5h. The opponent’s range is wide, and he could easily fold. He calls.

The flop comes 10c 7h 3d. Our opponent checks.

We absolutely must bet, as a key value of reraising is representing a larger hand. A smaller bet (say, 350 into an 875 pot) can induce a call from an opponent who might fold to a larger bet later in the hand. A larger opening bet could work in the short run, but if not, it will cost us more on the turn, and we don’t want to check the turn due to the potential for light flop calls.

Our 350 flop bet is called, and the turn comes 2s.

I think we can determine exactly where we stand with an appropriate turn bet. Our opponent, in calling the flop, has either a cautiously played 10, a pair that prays it’s not already beaten, or two overcards praying to hit the turn. It will be hard to get a 10 to fold, the overs will likely fold to a bet of more than half the pot, and should our opponent hold a pair, his reaction to our bet might indicate what sort of pair .

We bet 1,000. Overcards will fold most of the time here. A low or middle pair could visibly struggle. If we see this struggle, we can bet big on the riverwith any high card. A 10 or an overpair won’t go away and probably won’t show as much tension as an underpair. Our opponent calls. The river comes Kh. Fortunately, our turn bet eliminated most overcards from the opponent’s range. This is where we make a bet that makes our opponent believe that we want to get called while also putting pressure on him.

We bet 2,000 into a pot of 3,575. If our opponent has a 10, congrats to him. But our sizing allowed a multitude of worse hands to continue that will likely fold here, even though they beat us. That river could have been a K, J or 9 as well, and we still would have accomplished our goal of pres- suring pairs to fold (let alone an ace). We’ll frequently earn a fold here.

It’s important to count your bluff outs when considering your turn bet, particularly if your turn bet can help define your opponent’s range moving forward. Had we bet too small on the turn, we could have left overcards in, and a pair might have questioned why we wouldn’t be protecting our hand. Had the river come differently, sizing would have also guided us to correctly check the river, as the range of hands involved would have called a bet.

Sizingmatters if youwant to have an effective chance at shooting your shot or knowing when to holster your chips.