Bluewave, if it even exists, is slow to form in California
Like the unforgettable character Vizzini in Rob Reiner’s classic film “The Princess Bride,” I’ve found myself using the word “inconceivable” a lot of late. The last time I fell victim to this curse was 2016. Only in the days after that election it frequently came with a few choice words that aren’t suited for a family newspaper. And here we are again, days away from another critical election.
I used the word no less than three times Tuesday while talking to Paul Mitchell of Political Data Inc., a firm that collects voter data from California’s 58 counties. He relayed that the data he’s receiving from mailed-in ballots shows no evidence of a blue-wave election in California. Moreover, if there is any sign of increased voter enthusiasm, it’s on the Republican side of things.
Silly me. I’ve been thinking for months that if there was ever going to be a midterm election with a major uptick in voter turnout, it would be 2018.
Of course, it’s still possible. But all the early evidence points to what Mitchell terms “a typical election.” Which is to say low voter turnout. The last California midterm election in 2014 saw a record low voter turnout for a general election of only 42 percent of registered voters.
If we were going to see a blue wave this cycle,” Mitchell said, “we would expect to see it reflected in the ballots that have been mailed in early voting.”
About 35 percent of California’s mail-in ballots have already been returned. Republicans represent about 25 percent of California voters. But 31 per- cent of the mail-in ballots received to date are from GOP voters. Democrats account for about 44 percent of the state’s voters, but only 42 percent of the mail-in ballots are from Democrats. Perhaps, as Mitchell quips, Republicans are just better at knowing where they keep the stamps in their homes.
Turnout matters. Especially so this year in California, which is being termed a marquee year for state politics. Democrats need to flip 23 seats nationally to take control of the House, and at least six of the most competitive House races are in the Golden State. But if Democrats need a monster turnout to make that happen, the early returns show they’re likely to be disappointed.
The low turnout is especially notable in two areas in which Democrats were expecting to have an advantage: Latinos and young voters.
Latinos’ have returned 12 percent of California’s mail-in ballots, despite being 25 percent of registered voters in the state. Young people ages 18-34 also account for about 25 percent of registered voters, but only 10 percent of the mail-in ballots to date.
Mitchell believes it’s because Latinos and young voters don’t necessarily. live where they are registered to vote.
“The U.S. Census Bureau did a report showing that people aged 18-28 move on average four times a year over a 10-year period,” said Mitchell. “Latinos move even more, five times on average over 10 years.”
What it means for the election is they may not be registered to vote near where they live. They also may not receive a voter’s guide at their current address, making it harder to prepare to vote.
I know the feeling. I have voted, without fail, in every election since I was 26 years old. But for a four-year period while I was in my 20s, I moved eight times, I didn’t vote in several elections, even though I was working at a newspaper and reasonably well-informed on the issues. I failed to re-register in the city where I had moved and didn’t want to drive an hour back to my hometown to cast my vote.
I even remember using that tired phrase, “One vote doesn’t really matter.”
But it does. I’m a big believer in the law of accumulation, which posits that every great achievement is an accumulation of hundreds of small efforts that others often fail to see or appreciate.
One individual vote rarely makes a difference. But the accumulation of those people using it as an excuse not to vote represents a huge number, perhaps as high as the hundreds of thousands.
It’s a pretty safe bet that most readers who take the time to regularly read our opinion pages are also people who routinely vote in elections. So the challenge for those people is to entice those around them to cast their ballots on or before Nov. 6. Monday was the last day to formally register to vote in California, but any eligible individual may still conditionally register to vote and cast a provisional ballot by visiting their county elections official. As for me, not vote? Inconceivable.