Trump’s actual fears have nothing to do with the wall
The government isn’t shut down because of President Trump’s unbelievable cluelessness as a deal-maker. It’s shut down because of his many fears.
Not his own racist nonsense about the U.S.Mexico border being a sieve for homicidal maniacs and walk-to-work terrorists, and a humanitarian crisis largely of his own creation. I’m talking about his real fears.
Trump is afraid of Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter, Matt Drudge, Laura Ingraham and the rest of the far-right echo chamber. He’s afraid of his shrunken base, which could abandon him if he doesn’t get a wall. He’s afraid of special counsel Robert Mueller and the federal, state and local prosecutors who are investigating various Trump enterprises. And he’s afraid of losing his hold over the Republican senators who one day could sit in judgment of him.
None of these intertwined fears is irrational. But Trump has painted himself into a corner. According to news reports, the president knew his Oval Office address on Tuesday and his photo-op at the border on Thursday would make no difference and he knows that the GOP leadership in Congress can’t hold the line forever.
Trump has shown himself to be an incompetent negotiator. When he reneged on the original agreement to keep the government funded through Feb. 8, he cut the legs from under anyone who claims to be negotiating for him. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer would be crazy to agree to anything at all that doesn’t have Trump’s personal, public endorsement — and his felt-tipped signature, preferably in blood.
“You’ve got to be willing to walk away,” Trump often says about deal-making. But when you’re president, you can’t walk away from your own government. When Trump tried the maneuver Wednesday — calling congressional leaders to a meeting and then stalking out — he had nowhere to go.
Trump could have tried to tempt Democrats with a grand bargain on comprehensive immigration reform — or even a limited swap of “border security” funds he could use for his needless wall in exchange for permanent protection for the undocumented “Dreamers” brought to this country as minors. That could have caused some restiveness in Pelosi’s and Schumer’s ranks. But because Trump is offer- ing nothing at all, except a take-it-or-leave-it demand, Democrats have easily maintained a solid front.
With television cameras running, Trump boasted that everyone should blame him for a shutdown. Polls show this is exactly what the public has done, and Trump’s numbers will surely get worse as the effects of the shutdown become more dire.
The Democratic proposal — fund the government while continuing to debate border security and the wall — is eminently reasonable. But Trump is scared.
He went back on the original deal after the far-right commentariat went ballistic. And Trump doesn’t want Limbaugh, Coulter, et al. wailing to his base that their hero has surrendered and given up on “the wall,” which has always been more of a rallying cry than a serious proposal. Trump’s approval numbers have always been underwater, but as long as he retains overwhelming support among Republicans, he can expect GOP senators to worry that crossing him would amount to political suicide.
Depending on what Mueller and the other prosecutors find, it’s not inconceivable that the House could vote for impeachment. The more support Trump retains among the GOP base, the better his chances of surviving a Senate trial.
That’s why Trump looks so grim. He sees this as an existential fight, and so far he’s losing.