United States holds all of the cards in showdown with Iran
In May 2018, the Donald Trump administration withdrew the United States from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran, popularly known as the Iran nuclear deal.
The U.S. then ramped up sanctions on the Iranian theocracy to try to force it to stop nuclear enrichment. The Trump administration also hoped a strapped Iran would reduce funding to terrorist operations in the Middle East and beyond, proxy wars in the Persian Gulf, and harassment of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The sanctions are clearly destroying an already weak Iranian economy. A desperate Iranian government is using surrogates to send missiles into Saudi Arabia while its forces attack ships in the Gulf of Oman.
The Iranian theocrats yearn for the good old days of the Obama administration, when the U.S. agreed to a nuclear deal that all but guaranteed future Iranian nuclear proliferation, ignored Iranian terrorism and sent them hundreds of millions of dollars in shakedown payments.
Tehran assumes an even more left-wing American administration would also endorse Iran-friendly policies, and so it’s fishing for ways to see that happen in 2020.
Desperate Iranian officials have already met secretly with former Secretary of State John Kerry and openly with Sen. Dianne Feinstein, likely to find ways to revive the Obama-era agreement after Trump leaves office.
To that end, the Iranians wish to disrupt world oil traffic while persuading China, Russia and the European Union to pressure the U.S. to back off sanctions.
Iran hopes to provoke and embarrass its nemesis into overreacting — or not reacting at all. Either way, the Iranians think Trump loses.
After all, Iran knows Trump got elected in part by promising an end to optional interventions in the Middle East. Iran’s challenge is to provoke Trump into a shooting war it can survive and that will prove unpopular here, thus losing him the election.
Iran, of course, isn’t always a rationale actor. Tehran always magnifies its own importance and discounts the dangers it’s courting. The 2003-2011 Iraq War proved U.S. efforts could be subverted, public support for war could be eroded and a more malleable American government could be transitioned in.
But what worked then may not work now. The U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas. Likewise, American allies in the Middle East such as Israel are energy independent.
Time is on America’s side, and it’s not on the side of a bankrupt and impoverished Iran.
If Iran starts sinking ships or attacking U.S. assets, Trump can simply replay the ISIS strategy of selective off-and- on bombing. The U.S. didn’t lose a single pilot to enemy action.
That would mean disproportionately replying to each Iranian attack on a U.S. asset with a far more punishing air response against an Iranian base or port. The key would be to avoid the use of ground troops and yet not unleash a full-fledged air war.
Of course, Tehran may try to stir up trouble with Israel through its Syrian and Palestinian surrogates. Iran may in extremis also stage terrorist attacks in Europe and the U.S.
But the truth is, America has all the cards.
Because Iran is losing friends and money, it will have to escalate. But the U.S. can respond without looking weak or going to war — and without ensuring the return to power of the political party responsible for giving us the disastrous nuclear deal that empowered Iran to begin with.