Penguins rally, snap Islanders’ 10-game win streak in OT
My first reaction to the initial College Football Playoff rankings that were released this week: Stay calm. Do not panic or rejoice. All of it will change five times or more.
There were no surprises with the top group (in order): Ohio State, LSU, Alabama, Penn State, Clemson and Georgia.
Generally speaking, the Pac-12 has no reason to complain.
The conference could pick a nit or two with Oregon in the No. 7 spot behind Georgia. Georgia has a worse loss (South Carolina) but two quality wins (Notre Dame and Florida), whereas the Ducks have no quality wins.
But both Oregon and Utah received serious respect. They were ahead of one-loss Oklahoma and several spots ahead of zero-loss Baylor.
Oregon landed where we expected, while No. 8 Utah was two or three spots above our targeted position.
Bottom line: The Pac-12 is relevant in November.
It’s just the first week of November, but no matter: Being a part of the conversation is a major victory for the conference.
With the Utes and others ( hello, Alabama), the selection committee seemed to place a heavy emphasis on the eye test, as opposed to leaning on quality wins and schedule strength.
(And, of course, they use analytics that aren’t made public.)
The Utes haven’t beaten a ranked team — nor has Oregon, for that matter — but they have dominated most opponents and were rewarded in kind. No surprise that Oregon is ahead of Utah given the comparative results against USC and the Ducks’ one-point loss to Auburn.
Said committee chair Rob Mullens, the Oregon athletic director who leaves the room whenever the Ducks are being discussed: “What was relayed to me is that obviously Oregon has won eight in a row, quality road wins at Washington and USC, and the only loss was on a neutral field on the last play of the game against the team that’s ranked No. 11.
“Specifically as it relates to Oregon and Utah,
Utah’s only loss is at USC, a game that Oregon won.”
But both teams need help. The rankings are set up for Clemson, the Big Ten champ, the SEC champ and a one-loss nonchampion from either the Big Ten or SEC.
(And don’t discount Oklahoma’s prospects for vaulting the Pac-12 champion, if the Sooners win out.)
For reasons outlined here, Utah has a more treacherous path than Oregon.
And for reasons outlined here, both Pac-12 contenders need LSU to beat Alabama on Saturday.
Here’s what we wrote the night the Ducks lost to Auburn:
“It was not, however, a knockout blow to the Pac12’s playoff hopes. As we noted in our overview of the showdown, no single loss in Week One can completely derail a Power Five conference ... (But) unless Oregon does something no team has managed in the Pac-12 era and rolls undefeated through conference play, the Ducks are out of the playoff race.”
That assessment actually holds up quite well all these weeks later. (A rarity on the Hotline!)
The Ducks haven’t lost in conference play — history awaits — and, as a result, their narrow path has widened.
But one loss within the Pac-12 would be a knockout blow.
In our view, Utah’s situation is akin to Washington State’s when the first rankings were released last season.
The teams are different, obviously, but the resumes are similar:
Both carried a loss at USC — the Cougars’ defeat was highly controversial — and both had underwhelming nonconference schedules.
WSU had played Wyoming, San Jose State and Eastern Washington.
Utah has played BYU, Northern Illinois and Idaho State.
Where did the Cougars land in the initial committee rankings? No. 8, same as Utah this week.
Last year, Washington State remained No. 8 for four weeks, then fell to No. 13 — and finished there — after its Apple Cup loss to Washington.
Every team is different, every resume is different, every season is different, and no one is evaluated in a vacuum.
But it’s not difficult to envision Utah following an arc similar to Washington State in 2018. The Utes’ schedule, leading up to the conference championship game, will be of no help in building a case. The Utes have a bye Saturday, then finish with UCLA (4-5), Arizona (4-5) and Colorado (3- 6).