S.F. is playing a guessing game — after Pelosi, who?

In the past half-century, just three people have held the seat representing San Francisco in Congress. Two of them — Phil Burton and Nancy Pelosi — account for all but a handful of those 57 years.

Pelosi, the speaker of the House, was first elected in 1987, and her reelection — 17 times since — is so predictable it’s been decades since she waged anything resembling a political campaign. The consensus is that Pelosi, who regularly garners north of 75% support, can keep running and winning until she draws her last breath.

But the San Francisco Democrat, who turns 81 this month, has signaled that her congressional days have their limit.

She never planned to serve more than 10 years, she said in a 2018 interview, in which she spoke of “things to do, books to write, places to go, grandchildren, first and foremost, to love.” She called herself “a transitional figure” and, campaigning for the speakership, agreed to hold the post no more than four years — until after the 2022 midterm election.

Pelosi has said nothing publicly about her intentions, beyond a commitment to get big things done now that President Joe Biden is in the White House and Democrats control the Senate (barely). Still, the race to succeed her in Congress is well underway as would-be successors raise money, court political activists and position themselves for a contest seen as inevitable if not exactly certain in its timing.

This is, after all, a city with a hyperactive political metabolism, and more than 30 years have passed since an open House seat presented itself.

“I don’t know why anybody would line up for the job,” said Supervisor Aaron Peskin, who described Washington as a “messed-up, gridlocked mosh pit” and may be the only sentient politician in San Francisco with no interest in running. “But I have no doubt if there’s any open congressional seat, the line’s going to be long.”

Those seen as actively in pursuit — discreetly, so as not to antagonize Madame Speaker — include state Sen. Scott Wiener, whose district roughly approximates the current congressional boundaries, and former Supervisor David Campos, the chairman of the San Francisco Democratic Party. Wiener, a liberal by just about any measure, is considered the more moderate of the two. (“Corporate Democrat” is the epithet hurled by the more-progressivethan-thou wing of the party.)

There are plenty of other possible candidates, among them Mayor London Breed, City Attorney Dennis Herrera, state Assemblyman David Chiu and former Supervisor Jane Kim, who served in the leadership of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 California

presidential campaign.

Then there’s Christine Pelosi.

The most politically visible of the speaker’s five children, the 54-yearold has long been involved in Democratic campaigns and causes and maintains a pugnacious presence on social media. She has never held public office, however, and some question how voters would view an attempted mother-daughter handoff.

Would the speaker time her retirement to force a hurry-up special election, boosting the candidate with highest name recognition, which is to say her daughter? Would Pelosi stay neutral throughout the contest, work behind the scenes for a preferred successor, or openly advocate for one Democrat over another?

“Extremely experienced politicians don’t leave much to chance,” said Peskin, who has yet to pick a favorite in a race that exists, for now, only in the ether.

Pelosi has led Democrats in the House for nearly 20 years, and the fight to succeed her on Capitol Hill is certain to be a fierce one.

In San Francisco, where campaigns are deeply personal and elections a blood sport, the fight for her coveted congressional seat is likely to be even more vicious.