Egypt’s treaty with Israel will hold up

CAIRO— I came to Egypt to examine the impact a Muslim Brotherhood president has had on the country. Egyptian liberals and moderate Muslims have been struggling with religious political parties over the role of Islam in the state.

But an explosion of new fighting in Gaza, as Israel retaliates for a wave of Hamas rocket attacks on its cities and towns, reveals the constraints on any efforts to radically change Egypt. It also shows why Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel is likely to last.

In interviews with Brotherhood members, more orthodox Salafis, and opposition leaders during the week before the Gaza fighting began, it quickly became clear that the most pressing issue in Egypt is the economy, not sharia law.

“Ninety- nine percent of the people don’t care about this discussion of the constitution,” which is bogged down in a debate over sharia, said Mohamed ElBaradei, a key opposition leader and a former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency. “The people want work and health care because the economy is stagnant.”

ElBaradei said that when he recently visited Aswan, a major tourist destination, its top tourist hotel was only 1 to 2 percent occupied. “People were only talking about jobs, jobs, jobs,” he said.

Egypt’s new elected president, longtime Muslim Brotherhood member Mohamed Morsi, understands this huge economic challenge, as does the Brotherhood’s political front, the Freedom and Justice Party. Morsi knows he and his party will be judged by whether they can provide jobs and improve ordinary Egyptians’ standard of living.

To do that, they desperately need help from global agencies as well as direct foreign investment. Morsi knows Egypt can’t afford to scare off investors and tourists, and it most certainly can’t afford to fight another war.

That’s why, although Morsi recalled his ambassador to Israel over its air strikes on Gaza and sent his prime minister to Gaza City, he has not threatened to provide military aid to Hamas or take direct action against Israel.

Nor can he afford to cut off all diplomatic or trade relations, including the so- called QIZs — Qualifying Industrial Zones — which give Egyptian textiles preferential access to U. S. markets as long as they contain a symbolic 10 percent contribution from Israel. The QIZs have created tens of thousands of desperately needed jobs.

Of course, Morsi is under pressure from a newly politicized public, Brotherhood members, and Salafis to take stronger action against Israel. Given that Hamas has Brotherhood roots, that pressure will intensify if the Israeli strikes continue. If Israel invades Gaza, Morsi could be forced to take action he wants to avoid.

Morsi’s pragmatism, born of economic necessity, probably explains why his party has not pressed to give sharia a greater role in the draft constitution being intensely debated. The new president knows his reputation will rise or fall on whether he can make ordinary Egyptians’ lives better. He rashly promised to improve Cairo’s impossibly congested traffic and woefully absent garbage collection in his first 100 days. But Cairo’s main roads are still so jammed that they often resemble parking lots, and piles of garbage sit on many streets. Morsi’s FJP, which espouses free- market principles, also knows that it will be judged in next year’s parliamentary elections by whether the president has delivered.

Facing such obstacles, Morsi most likely will try to avoid new ones for the foreseeable future. He simply cannot afford a major conflict with Israel.

“Ninety- nine percent of the people don’t care about this discussion of the constitution. The people want work and health care because the economy is stagnant.”

— MohamedElBaradei, former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency