Poll: Among youth, Obama’s popularity may not transfer
DURHAM, North Carolina — Paulos Muruts is set to cast his first presidential ballot for Hillary Clinton — if he makes it to the ballot box.
“I might need someone on Election Day to actually convince me to go out and vote,” says the 19-year-old Duke University student, arguing that the Democratic nominee “has the experience” and “exudes the right temperament” but “doesn’t inspire excitement.”
Yet mention Clinton’s would-be predecessor and Muruts’ eyes light up.
“Love President Obama,” he said. “He’s got swagger.”
Muruts represents a frustrating political reality for Clinton in her matchup against Republican nominee Donald Trump: She’ll fare far better on Election Day among voters age 1830, but she could fall short of Obama’s totals and turnouts that drove his victories in 2008 and 2012, a GenForward survey suggests.
The math tells the story. The survey, conducted Sept. 1-14 by the Black Youth Project at the University of Chicago with the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, found that 54 percent of voters age 18 to 30 held a negative view of Clinton. Just 41 percent said they see her favorably. At the same time, 60 percent of respondents said they approve of Obama’s job performance, while 26 percent do not. That’s a difference of 19 percentage points between the president’s job approval and Clinton’s favorability.
Any drop off in the “Obama coalition,” whether because of defections to minor candidates or voters opting to stay home, could affect the outcomes in states such as North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio and Florida — which have significant populations of college students.
Most vexing for Clinton is that the survey depicts a young generation less critical of the current Oval Office occupant than older voters. Obama argues that “my legacy is on the ballot.” But those sentiments aren’t so easily transferred to Clinton, even as young voters resoundingly reject Trump and, as a whole, declare Clinton more honest and more qualified than the GOP nominee.