Keys to the series.
The Sharks face the Edmonton Oilers in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, starting Wednesday. Here is what needs to happen for the Sharks to win the series.
1. Get healthy
Everything is contingent on the health of Joe Thornton and Logan Couture. If the Sharks’ top two centers are unable to contribute in a meaningful way, Brent Burns will be skipping town in his RV sooner than anybody would have expected a month ago. Without Thornton’s ability to create space, the Sharks produced a season-low 15 shots on goal in a 4-2 loss to the Oilers last Thursday in San Jose. They also missed Thornton’s gifts on the power play, where they went 0 for 4 with only two shots on goal. But Couture might be even more valuable than Thornton in a matchup against the Oilers. As one of the top two-way forwards in hockey, Couture is the only centerman on the roster with any chance to neutralize Connor McDavid’s offensive explosiveness. The Sharks also need Couture’s skill, leadership and ability to deliver in the clutch. Don’t forget, Couture was the NHL’s top scorer in the playoffs last year, racking up 30 points in 24 games.
2. Contain Connor McDavid
Easy to write, nearly impossible to do. McDavid, 20, picked up a point on 41.2 percent of the Oilers’ goals this season, he won the Art Ross Trophy with 100 points and he’s a strong favorite to win the Hart Trophy, too. If the Sharks can limit the damage done by McDavid and linemate Leon Draisaitl (77 points), they can really let the air out of the Oilers’ tires. The key word here is “limiting.” The Sharks did a good job of restricting McDavid’s touches last week by keeping his line in the defensive zone, and yet he still found a way to contribute on the scoresheet with two points. McDavid will be quite familiar with Marc-Edouard Vlasic by the end of the series. Vlasic is among the top defensive blue liners in the NHL and he’ll have his eye on McDavid every time he steps on the ice. If there’s a defenseman who can limit the damage, it’s probably Vlasic.
3. Win the depth matchups
The Oilers really are a one-trick pony up front. They let McDavid run loose while playing “Katie bar the door” with their three other lines. The second line of Milan Lucic, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jordan Eberle still hasn’t proven it can win its matchups consistently against the best teams in the Western Conference. The third line combination of Benoit Pouliot, David Desharnais and Zack Kassian would be a fourth line on a true contender. The problem here is that the Sharks are struggling to get secondary scoring, too. Tomas Hertl (two goals in 19 games), Joonas Donskoi (no goals in 22 games), Mikkel Boedker (one goal in 17 games), Kevin Labanc (one goal in 31 games) and Timo Meier (one goal in 20 games) are all fighting through scoring slumps, contributing to the team’s tailspin down the stretch. If a couple of these guys can break out, the Sharks could win the series on the backs of their line depth. Of course, the Sharks’ depth advantage will be wiped out if Thornton and Couture are unable to perform.
4. Strong penalty kill bails out floundering power play
Last spring, the Sharks rode their power play to the final, entering the series with a 27-percent execution rate. On Wednesday, the Sharks will open the playoffs with the worst power play among the 16 remaining teams (16.7 percent, 25th). The Oilers, on the other hand, are looking like the Sharks of old with the extra man, ranking fifth (22.9 percent), which shouldn’t be surprising considering that former Sharks coach Todd McLellan is running the show. The Sharks are unlikely to solve their power-play problems overnight in the playoffs, especially if Thornton and Couture aren’t in top health. But they can stay out of the red on the ever-important special-teams ledger with an airtight performance by the penalty kill, which tends to be more important in the playoffs. But the Sharks’ penalty kill has been middle of the road this year, too, ranking 18th in the league (80.7 percent). Couture also happens to be their best penalty-killing forward. The key here will be staying out of the box. If the Sharks can do that and string together some good kills, they can avoid a special teams disaster.
5. Character Counts
The most important factor for the Sharks in this series might be that fuzzy, immeasurable variable known as character. Edmonton will be hosting its first playoff game since 2006 on Wednesday and the Sharks might be able to catch the young Oilers gripping their sticks under the pressure of the home crowd’s expectations. The Oilers’ roster includes 11 players without playoff experience and another five who have skated in 10 or fewer playoff games, including key guys such as McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and Darnell Nurse. Conversely, the Sharks have only five players who have never been in a playoff game. The roster has a combined 1,169 games of playoff experience to the Oilers’ 342, and 17 current Sharks were on the roster for last spring’s run to the Stanley Cup Final. They might be missing some horses, but the moment won’t be too big for this veteran group. If the Sharks can win a game in Edmonton, and Thornton and Couture manage to heal up as the series progresses, they could give themselves a shot at a memorable upset.