Curry’s sideline deserves some props
Oddsmakers weigh in on NBA superstar’s golf game
HAYWARD — Stephen Curry’s participation in a pro golf event this week — the Ellie Mae Classic at TPC Stonebrae in Hayward — has drawn the attention of the gambling world.
At least one off-shore gambling website, BookMaker.eu, is offering prop bets on the Warriors star’s performance in the Web.com Tour event that begins Thursday.
Despite Curry’s impressive fourth-place finish in the American Century Championship at Lake Tahoe two weeks ago, the oddsmakers aren’t giving him very good odds of doing well. It’s one thing to show up Charles Barkley with a driver, wedge and putter, quite another to measure up to 140 hungry guys who are trying to earn a living.
Curry is entered on a sponsor’s exemption, which has prompted some mild consternation about
him taking a spot from a bona fide player. The flip side is that Curry’s participation will provide considerable media attention to an event that otherwise wouldn’t get much of a look — or any kind of decent crowd.
This isn’t a new play for the tournament. Jerry Rice played the event three straight years from 201012, though he did not play well. His best showing was his first -- he shot 83-76 and finished next-to-last. (Rice finished one stroke better than Brendon Todd, who won a PGA Tour event four years later.)
Curry, who will play his first official practice round Tuesday, will fare better than Rice.
Rice didn’t take up the sport until his football career was over and he was in his late 40s when he debuted at Stonebrae in 2010. Curry is just 29 and in the prime of his athletic career, with his competitive drive at its absolute peak.
Curry, who plays out of California Golf Club and is essentially a scratch golfer with a current handicap index of +0.1, has also played golf a lot longer than Rice, starting in high school. He plays often and understands the game’s subtle nuances, and the crowds don’t seem to bother him much despite the change of sporting venue. In addition to wowing the folks at the American Century celebrity event with a finalround 68, Curry played shoulder-to-shoulder with pro Justin Thomas in the Frys.com Open pro-am two years ago and acquitted himself very well.
He’s also had experience playing alongside some pretty big names — President Barack Obama, for instance.
According to the USGA handicapping website, Curry has played 20 rounds since mid-May and only twice shot as high as 80 or worse. He’s consistently in the mid-70s, occasionally lower. And that 68 in the American Century got his handicap down to its lowest point of the year. So if nothing else, he’s going into Stonebrae with his game as sharp as it may be considering he’s barely more than a month removed from winning the NBA championship.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the prop bets set by BookMaker.eu accompanied by an assessment of each bet:
Will Curry make the cut? Yes: +900 No: -2500
Assessment: Curry has almost no chance of making the cut. The Web.com Tour has too many good players, many of whom bounce back and forth on the fringe of the PGA Tour. Curry would likely have to shoot in red numbers both days as last year’s cut line at Stonebrae was 3-under par. Sixty-eight players shot 68 or better in last year’s first round, and in the second round, an astounding 94 players shot 68 or better. Also, consider this: According to Golf Channel’s Justin Ray, there have been 23 past attempts by athletes from other sports to play in a Web.com event, and none have made the cut. Not only that, none has even carded a round in the 60s. Sorry, Steph, best move on to some of these other possible wagers.
Curry’s highest score for any round? Over 79.5: -130 Under 79.5: +100
Assessment: The under might be a good play here. While it’s unlikely he will shoot 72-71, it’s not farfetched to see 78-76 based on his American Century performance. That’s five strokes better than Rice’s debut showing, which seems reasonable. You know that Curry, the ultra-competitor, definitely will be using J.R. as a major barometer.
Curry’s lowest score for any round?
Over 76.5: -115 Under 76.5: -115
Assessment: We’ll give Steph the benefit of the doubt and say he’s at least good enough for a 76. And you can bet he’ll be getting some encouragement and maybe some putting pointers from his Under Armour colleague, Jordan Spieth.
Curry’s highest score on any hole? Over 7: -115 Under 7: -115
Assessment: Oh yeah. Easy. Take the over. Steph did actually post an 87 with the USGA during one of his rounds this month. Even if he plays well, at least one blow-up hole can almost be guaranteed at Stonebrae, which can lull a player into a false sense of security with its wide-open landscape. But there’s tons of trouble if you stray too far from the fairway. Get in too deep and it’s like having Patrick Beverley on your back.
How many birdies will Curry card (for the tournament)? Over 2.5: -115 Under 2.5: -115
Assessment: This is a tough one, but taking the over for at least one day wouldn’t be a stretch. But which day? The second day is probably the better bet, considering the nerves will have subsided a bit and Steph can be a little more free-wheeling and focused with his play. Remember, he also has a penchant for getting hot. Considering Web.com standout Stephen Jaeger shot a 58 here last year, three birdies in a round here doesn’t sound unreasonable for Curry. Even Rice made some birdies during his Stonebrae stints, and Curry will give himself more chances than Jerry did.
How many bogeys or worse will Curry card (for the tournament)? Over 8.5: -115 Under 8.5: -115
Assessment: Another evenmoney proposition, but let’s go out on a short limb and say Curry won’t make nine bogeys on either day, especially if we stick to a prediction of 78-76.
That’s a pretty low bar for Steph, but here’s the real question: Can he get under the bar we’ve now set for him?