CALIFORNIA POLITICS MAY SWERVE IN 2018
Midterm elections, a sex scandal, Trump resistance generate questions
With two competitive top-of-theticket races and a national spotlight on the state’s congressional districts — to say nothing about the Legislature’s busy agenda coupled with a growing sexual harassment scandal in the Capitol — 2018 will be a blockbuster year for California politics.
President Donald Trump’s tumultuous first year in office has sent political shock waves across the continent, rearranging California’s political map. If Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton had beaten Trump in 2016, Sen. Dianne Feinstein might have scooted into her fifth full term without a serious challenger because she wouldn’t have irked liberals by being too soft on Trump. Democrats wouldn’t have had a chance at reclaiming Congress, and Golden State Republicans wouldn’t be tarred by association with an unpopular president.
Instead, Trump’s presidency has buoyed Democrats’ hopes in races up and down the ballot. In 2018, as Trump and congressional Republicans move forward with entitlement reform and other policies that could further destabilize the Golden State’s finances, California politics will continue to be shaped by the New York billionaire’s peculiar presidency.
To keep it all straight, here’s a cheat sheet with some of the biggest political
questions that will be answered in 2018.
Who will step into Gov. Jerry Brown’s shoes?
A large field of contenders faces off with the hope of succeeding Brown, a fixture of California politics for almost half a century who will wrap up his 16th year as governor in 2018. The front-runners are Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, a former San Francisco mayor who has come out on top in every public poll, and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, both Democrats. They’ve significantly outpolled Republicans Travis Allen, a state assemblyman from Orange County, and John Cox, a real estate executive from San Diego County, as well as Democrats John Chiang, the state treasurer, and Delaine Eastin, a former state public schools chief.
If Newsom and Villaraigosa both move on to November after June’s “top two” primary, each will be playing to different bases: Newsom is backed by liberals and the Bay Area, while Villaraigosa has led among Latinos and in Los Angeles. Villaraigosa has tried to appeal to Republicans and more moderate voters.
The race is a far cry from 2010, when Silicon Valley billionaire Meg Whitman spent $144 million of her own money in a bruising battle, only to lose by 13 percentage points to Brown. But it’ll be a lot more exciting than 2014, when a lackluster governor’s race ended with Republican Neel Kashkari losing to Brown by 20 points.
Can Dianne Feinstein hold onto her U.S. Senate seat?
In her last election, she won by 25 points — and she hasn’t faced a competitive race since 1998. But Feinstein’s 2018 bid for a fifth full term in the Senate could be surprisingly tricky.
After some political missteps — including urging “patience” for Trump, blasphemy among many liberals — Feinstein, at 84 the oldest U.S. senator, drew
the most prominent Democratic challenger of her Senate career: Kevin de León, the California Senate leader. While polls have shown Feinstein comfortably ahead, de León has been narrowing the lead, and he hopes to capitalize on an energized left-wing base.
“He’s got the advantage of intensity,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College. “Feinstein would still be the favorite, but I wouldn’t say it’s a done deal.”
And other candidates might still jump in, notably the Democratic megadonor Tom Steyer, who’s been bankrolling a campaign calling for Trump’s impeachment.
Will swing districts in California help Dems recapture the House?
As Democrats work to take back the U.S. House of Representatives next year, California will be ground zero. Democrats need 24 seats nationally for Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi to wield the speaker’s gavel again, and they have more promising possibilities here than in any other state.
The seven Republicans who represent districts won by Clinton, most in the Central Valley and Southern California suburbs, are seen as highly vulnerable. Democratic strategists say the GOP delegation gave them plenty of ammunition this year: All 14 of California’s House Republicans supported a bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act, and 12 backed Trump’s tax bill — unpopular votes among most Californians.
“From a surfing standpoint, this could be the monster wave — Mavericks and ‘Jaws’ all wrapped up into one,” said Paul Maslin, a Los Angeles pollster who worked on Democrat Doug Jones’ surprisingly successful U.S. Senate campaign in Alabama. “Those seven or eight seats in California will be crucial.”
How far will sexual harassment scandals reach in Sacramento?
As attention on sexual harassment rose over the last couple of months, more than 150 women signed a public letter decrying a culture
of sexual harassment in Sacramento, sparking a move to clean up the Capitol. So far, the movement has claimed two assemblymen: Southern California Democrats Raul Bocanegra and Matt Dababneh, who resigned after women accused them of groping, assault and other serious misconduct. Allegations have also surfaced against Sen. Tony Mendoza, a Los Angeles County Democrat, and Assemblyman Devon Mathis, a Central Valley Republican.
Legislative leaders have scrambled to respond to the flood of attention, hiring independent lawyers to investigate claims and promising new policies to protect victims. Within the next few weeks, the Legislature is expected to release new records identifying lawmakers who have faced “substantiated” claims of sexual misconduct or were disciplined for harassment.
Can Republicans gain a toehold in state government?
The coming year could bring a new low water mark for the California Republican Party: It’s possible that no Republican candidate will get to the November ballot in the governor’s and Senate race because of California’s primary system, in which the top two candidates advance to the general election regardless of party.
The most recent polls in the governor’s race found Democrats Newsom and Villaraigosa well ahead of GOP hopefuls Cox and Allen, although many voters remain undecided. And so far, no prominent elected Republican has voiced interest in running against Feinstein.
“There are no Republicans who are prominent enough to escape Donald Trump’s brand in California,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego.
“California could become essentially a oneparty state,” agreed Pitney, a former Republican party official.
Will California’s Trump ‘resistance’ movement grow or fizzle?
Expect ambitious California Democrats to continue
standing up to Trump, both in the Legislature and in legal action by Attorney General Xavier Becerra. As long as the president faces approval rates in the 30s, there’s little political downside to doing so.
What will San Francisco’s mayor’s race mean for the Bay Area’s tech boom?
The sudden death of San Francisco Mayor Ed Lee this month sets up a race to succeed him that could serve as a referendum on the tech-friendly town he helped create.
Will voters support transportation and housing ballot measures?
Ballot questions in 2018 will determine whether Californians want to pay more for transit, road repairs and housing with increased tolls, fees and bonds. And
voters will likely be asked whether they want to trash the recently enacted gas tax hike.
Will California pass a single-payer health care plan?
One of Sacramento’s most contentious policy fights in 2017 will be back again, as the powerful California Nurses Association fights for a single-payer system and legislators work to protect the state’s health care system from Trump administration cuts.
Will a presidential contender from California emerge?
Behind the scenes, the maneuvering for the 2020 presidential race has already begun — and several Californians could be among the small army of Democrats expected to throw their hat in the ring against Trump.
Sen. Kamala Harris has been talked about as a contender since even before she arrived in Washington last January. A darling of progressives, Harris has built her political brand with strident criticism of the president. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has acknowledged that he’s thinking about running for president. And there’s even speculation that the 79-year-old Brown, who ran for president in the ’70s, ’80s and ’90s, plans to go one more round.
Harris and Garcetti’s travel schedules next year, as they support other Democrats during midterm elections, could provide clues about their intentions. It won’t take long after the midterm polls close on Nov. 6 for the presidential primary campaign to burst into public view, signaling yet another sizzling political year to come.