The Mercury News

What are the costs of Trump’s never-ending pursuit of Putin?

- By Trudy Rubin Trudy Rubin is a Philadelph­ia Inquirer columnist. © 2018, Chicago Tribune. Distribute­d by Tribune Content Agency.

Want to view the costs of President Donald Trump’s persistent pursuit of Vladimir Putin?

Look no further than Syria, where the Kremlin is determined to drive out U.S. forces that are assisting the Syrian Kurds who defeated ISIS. The consequenc­e would be a likely return of jihadis to Syria along with a strengthen­ing of Iranian influence. Putin’s role as Mideast kingpin would be strengthen­ed.

But Trump has no clue. Just last week, he rebuffed aides’ advice for a phone call with Putin, congratula­ting the Russian warmly on his victory in (rigged) elections, while refusing to condemn Russia’s nerveagent attack in Britain or hacking of U.S. targets. On Monday, however, Trump did respond by expelling 60 Russian diplomats, joining European Union countries, Canada and Ukraine, which expelled over 100 Russian diplomats in total.

After the call, the president trumpeted three times that he and Putin would meet soon. Current developmen­ts in Syria show how just risky such a meeting would be.

Russian planes and Iranianbac­ked militias have ensured that Syrian President Bashar Assad will remain in power.

Moscow and Tehran, however, left the successful battle against ISIS to the Americans and their Kurdish allies; Kurdish fighters now control a large swath of northeaste­rn Syria, called Rojava along the Syrian-Turkish border. The Syrian Kurds hope this territory will become a federal region within Syria.

The U.S. has 2,000 troops in this region, hoping to use their presence as leverage in internatio­nal negotiatio­ns over Syria’s future (now dominated by the Russians). The northeast of Syria contains most of the country’s oil, its richest, grain-producing soil, and the route for key pipelines. This could give Washington and the Kurds some voice in final Syrian arrangemen­ts. A U.S. departure, however, may embolden ISIS to make a comeback and leave Syria’s border with Turkey open to movement by jihadis.

Yet Putin, eager to give America a black eye, and encouraged by Trump’s passivity, hopes to drive the U.S. out of Syria, in cahoots with Iran and Turkey. He could succeed.

In January, Turkey invaded the Kurdish canton of Afrin, 60 miles from Rojava, where U.S. troops are based. In recent days, Afrin fell to the Turks, which now plans to proceed east, possibly as far as Rojava.

Here is the headline: The Turks could not have made their move into Afrin without a green light from Putin.

Russia controlled the airspace over Afrin. The Russians had a few hundred observers inside Afrin. Moscow pulled out its forces, withdrew its air cover, and let Turkey advance in order to poke a finger in America’s eye.

Putin has weakened the U.S.Kurd alliance by demonstrat­ing that the U.S. would not aid Kurdish forces in Afrin and has weakened NATO, by setting up Turkish troops for a possible conflict with U.S. forces.

And he is testing. In a meeting with Trump he would no doubt urge him to pull U.S. forces out of Rojava. Why not let Russia take care of everything?

Never mind that Russia cares much less about ISIS than the U.S. and much more about its alliance with Iran. If Trump walks away, Iranian influence soars and the jihadis return.

Putin respects strength. He observes when the president salivates over a proposed meeting. If Trump meets Putin and doesn’t stand firm, the Russian leader will extract concession­s that the president never realizes he is making, while pocketing gains. Syria is an example of the chess game that Putin is playing, and he is playing it well.

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