Fallout mixed for midterms in wake of Kavanaugh battle
The nomination fight over Judge Brett Kavanaugh has injected new volatility into the midterm elections, reshaping races across the country and sharpening the already bitterly partisan tone for the final four-week stretch before Nov. 6.
Much uncertainty remains — not least because of the rapid-fire succession of evolving crises that have marked President Donald Trump’s term in office — but for now the weekslong Kavanaugh saga appears to be pushing House races toward Democrats, even as it has given Republicans
better odds of maintaining control of the Senate.
That division stems from the makeup of the races and the political geography of the most competitive battles. House contests this year already were expected to be determined by suburban women, who had pulled away from the president over his term in the White House and appear to be the most sympathetic to Christine Blasey Ford, the woman who testified that Kavanaugh had assaulted her when both were teenagers.
But most of this year’s competitive Senate races are in traditionally red states, and as Republicans have rallied to Kavanaugh’s side, the chances of Democratic upsets there have dropped, at least for now.
Democrats are growing more concerned about keeping their seats in Indiana, Missouri and Montana and appear to be losing ground
when it comes to potential pickups in Texas and Tennessee. One of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents, Sen. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, who said Thursday that she would vote against Kavanaugh, has fallen far behind her Republican challenger in new polling. Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, another vulnerable Democrat, reached for political survival when he became the final senator and only Democrat to announce a vote for Kavanaugh.
But in the House, the Cook Political Report and other predictors have moved more than half a dozen seats in the Democratic direction in recent days, and Republican operatives are bracing themselves for an onslaught of Democratic money that they are calling “a green wave.” Gubernatorial races — in which Democrats are trying to regain territory that they’ve lost in recent years, particularly in the Midwest — are also trending left.
“There’s nothing quite like a good old-fashioned
Supreme Court fight to polarize the electorate — and that’s what we’ve observed in the past few weeks,” said David Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “The Kavanaugh issue has almost acted as a centrifuge to separate red and blue elements of the electorate even more.”
The Supreme Court battle has washed over the campaign in a way that no single issue has before, drowning out topics Democrats want to talk about (health care) or the ones Republicans are pushing (tax cuts and a rosy economy). In a season defined by enoughis-enough female energy — along with white male rage and aggrievement that is stomping back to 2016 levels — the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings were explosive on all fronts.
In recent days, Trump has fiercely defended Kavanaugh and mocked his accusers, candidates have aired new ads on their positions, debates have pivoted on the nomination, and both parties have sensed political advantage in what already had stacked up as an election dependent on each side motivating its base.
The divide into separate camps has been on vivid display among protesters inside the U.S. Capitol — but it is also playing out more subtly in the rest of the country, from retail store parking lots in Fargo, North Dakota, to the bars of Bedminster, New Jersey.
Democrats have always faced a difficult Senate map — six of the competitive seats that they hold are in states Trump won, and five of those states he carried by at least 19 points —but their path now is more treacherous.
In North Dakota, television screens across the state were flashing with ads both attacking Heitkamp and defending her record. At Fargo’s VFW Post 762, drinkers pulled their eyes away from the nightly happy hour drink raffle to watch back-to-back political spots.
Just hours before Heitkamp announced her opposition to Kavanaugh, voters
like Stephanie Beyah were still weighing their support for the incumbent based on what the senator might do.
“I think it would be awful [to have Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court],” Beyah, a young woman in her 30s, said as she pushed a cart of purchases through a Target parking lot. “Just beyond the allegations, the way he portrayed himself last week was terrible. This is not a spot on the school board. You’re choosing a guy that will change people’s lives.”
Troy Reich, a burly man in a flannel shirt juggling a stack of boxes as he entered the post office in downtown Fargo, said he was a firm supporter of Heitkamp’s opponent, Republican nominee Rep. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D. But the Kavanaugh hearings increased his anger at Democrats, and he feels the drama will affect tight races like the Senate contest.
In Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is fighting for re-election in a state Trump won by 19 points, the Kavanaugh dispute has riled up conservative male voters who feel he is a victim of partisan smears and unfounded accusations about what amounts to schoolboy antics, said Brian Howey, the author of a website on Indiana politics.
“The allegations of Dr. Ford, they just threw a pipe bomb in this race,” Howey said. “Now we’re waiting to see who the shrapnel takes out.”
Recent polls show a dead heat between Donnelly, who announced his opposition to Kavanaugh last week, and his Republican opponent Mike Braun.
For Republicans, a major challenge will be keeping their base riled up over how Kavanaugh was treated, even though he was poised to win in the end. Democrats believe that the enthusiasm advantage will shift back their way.
“On our side, the outrage will live for years,” said Brian Fallon, a Democratic consultant. “And it’ll be very pronounced, particularly among women voters who are already the backbone of the resistance . ... It’ll be year of the women redux.”