Army report on caravans undermines Trump claims

Military planners anticipate that only a small percentage of Central American migrants traveling in the caravans that President Donald Trump characterizes as “an invasion” will reach the U.S.-Mexico border, even as a force of more than 7,000 activeduty troops mobilizes to prevent them from entering the United States.

According to military planning documents, about 20 percent of the roughly 7,000 migrants traveling through Mexico is likely to complete the journey. The unclassified report was obtained and published by Newsweek on Thursday. If the military’s assessment is accurate, it would mean the United States is positioning five soldiers on the border for every one caravan member expected to arrive there.

“Based on historic trends, it is assessed that only a small percentage of the migrants will likely reach the border,” the report says. It was prepared by U.S. Army North, a component of U.S. Northern Command, which oversees the mission, dubbed Operation Faithful Patriot. Reached Friday, military officials did not dispute the report’s veracity.

Seizing on immigration as his main campaign theme ahead of Tuesday’s elections, Trump has depicted the caravans — at least four have formed, though they remain hundreds of miles away — as a grave danger to U.S. national security, claiming they are composed of “unknown Middle Easterners,” hardened criminals and “very tough fighters.” He also insists the number of migrants is much larger than estimates put forward by U.S. and Mexican government officials.

The military assessment does not support any of those claims.

The report, dated Oct. 27, notes that caravan members are unlikely to arrive for at least two to four weeks. Among those traveling are “limited #s of Bangladeshi, Haitian and African individuals,” it reads. It makes no mention of Middle Eastern countries.