No shortage of options for Wilson if Karlsson moves on
Even if Erik Karlsson is one-and-done as a Sharks player, even if he leaves as a free agent this summer, Doug Wilson will have an opportunity to bring another difference-maker to San Jose.
The Sharks GM isn't saying anything — he declined all questions on the matter this summer — but this could be the most intriguing offseason in NHL history. In addition to a handful of big names slated to hit unrestricted free agency — Karlsson, Joe Pavelski, Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene and Jeff Skinner — an unprecedented class of restricted free agents will be seeking new contracts.
It is the latter group that brands the summer of 2019 as so special. Specifically, it is the number of “difference-making” players in the class of restricted free agents. To make a serious run at a Stanley Cup, a team needs difference-makers. The trouble is those players typically are available only through the draft, and in the top few picks. The likes of Sidney Crosby, Alexander Ovechkin and Patrick Kane rarely go to market.
The NHL is a young man's game now. Heading into play Sunday, four of the top six scorers were 22 years old or younger. If you want a differencemaker, you can't wait until they hit unrestricted free agency at age 27.
With that in mind, Wilson's best chance at resetting the Sharks clock without falling into the cellar for half-a-decade might come this offseason in what some pundits are already labeling as “The summer of the offer sheet.” The NHL's leading scorer, Mikko Rantanen, will be a restricted free agent. So will the league's secondand third-leading goal scorers, Patrik Laine and Brayden Point. Also in that group are Matthew Tkachuk, Sebastian Aho, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser and William Karlsson. Add the Sharks' Timo Meier too.
But if Wilson is going to pluck a difference-maker out of this class, his best bet is to target the Toronto Maple Leafs. After re-signing William Nylander to a $45 million contract last week, Leafs GM Kyle Dubas now faces an even bigger headache: how to keep both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner on board under a hard salary cap of roughly $83 million.
Now, many people believe that an offer sheet bonanza is unlikely this summer because it's a frowned-upon practice that kills relationships between general managers.
Still, it's hard to imagine a scenario where 30 general managers are going to sit back and allow the Maple Leafs to move forward with their dynasty-in-themaking by reaching hometown deals with both Matthews and Marner. Some team is going to step forward and throw an offer at one of these guys, forcing Dubas to make a choice.
It's a quagmire the Sharks could exploit.
Give Wilson credit for pulling off the Karlsson trade last September. After missing on John Tavares, the prize of the free agents, Wilson went right back out
and landed another difference-maker in Karlsson. And it might not be a oneand-done deal. Karlsson still could stick around beyond this season.
But if he doesn't, the Sharks can turn the page and get help at forward where they're lacking depth. They still need to find a long-term replacement for Joe Thornton, the hole they hoped Tavares would have filled.
At this point, the assumption is that the Maple Leafs will do everything possible to hang onto Matthews. If that's the case, the Sharks could take a run at Marner, either through trade or offer sheet. The latter would be costly and require some real finagling.
First, the Sharks would need to swing deals with both Buffalo and Ottawa to regain the first-round picks they surrendered in the trades for Karlsson and Evander Kane. Then, they'd need to give up two first-rounders, because they'd likely be making an offer to Marner north of $12-million per year. The Leafs would need to match that offer, or lose Marner.
The more-likely scenario is that the Leafs try to trade Marner before July 1, knowing they won't be able to keep both him and Matthews. Then Wilson could swoop in as he did with Kane and Karlsson. He'd need to give up a boatload of picks and prospects, and give Marner a healthy payday as well. But it would be worth it.
Marner would give the Sharks exactly what they need: tremendous speed on the wing, elite playmaking ability and youthful talent. They could sign him to a big deal with the $17.5 million in cap space that will be freed up when the contracts of Karlsson, Thornton and Joe Pavelsiki expire after the season. It will require some creativity, but that's Wilson's strong suit.
Plan A is still re-signing Karlsson, but Wilson will have options if things don't work out. The time is nigh.