Bay Area men might be shut out of NCAAs again
March is just around the corner, so it seems appropriate to take a first look at how the Bay Area is likely to fare on NCAA tournament Selection Sunday (and Monday).
A month and change into the season, let me provide an early reality check:
Local men’s teams could be left on the outside for a second year in a row for the first time since 1985 and ’86. USF seems the best bet to avert that scenario.
Two Bay Area women’s teams — Stanford and Cal — should get the nod. Saint Mary’s hopes to make it three local entries in the bracket for the first time since 1999, but the Gaels have work to do.
Here’s a team-by-team assessment of each team’s prospects, ranked by their chances:
Men
USF (8-1) >> The Dons, seeking their first NCAA bid since 1998, are off to their best start in decades. Their NET computer ranking (the new RPI for men) is No. 21 — highest of any team in California. Their only loss was to unbeaten and 14th-ranked Buffalo. The problem: their schedule. By the time West Coast Conference play begins, the Dons already will have faced eight teams with a NET ranking of 245 or worse. NCAA chance: Still less than 50-50.
SAINT MARY’S (7-4) >> The Gaels, regrouping after the loss of three all-WCC players last season, have won four in a row. But they couldn’t get a bid last year when they were 28-5 on Selection Sunday, and this team isn’t likely to go 21-1 the rest of the way. NCAA chance: Long odds.
STANFORD (4-4) >> The Cardinal missed a great chance to pull off a road upset of Kansas that would have done wonders for its resume. Stanford has played a challenging schedule but has nothing to show for it. To get to the tournament, the Cardinal must climb high in the standings of a mediocre Pac12. NCAA chance: No better than Saint Mary’s.
CAL (4-5) >> The Bears are coming off their best performance of the season in a win over San Diego State, but their NET computer rating is No. 162. Barring a major turnaround, Cal will be out for a third straight season — its longest drought since 1999-2001. NCAA chance: Target is next season. SANTA CLARA (4-6) >> The Broncos opened the season with a loss to Prairie View A&M, which has not won since, and the best team Santa Clara has beaten might be San Jose State. NCAA chance: Steve Nash is not walking through that door.
SAN JOSE STATE (2-6) >> The Spartans are No. 302 in the NET rankings, have only two wins over Division I teams since Dec. 21, and only one winning season since 1993-94. Sadly, it’s easy math. NCAA chance: Not zero, but close.
Women
STANFORD (6-1) >> Big games looming on Saturday vs. No. 3 Baylor and next Tuesday at No. 9 Tennessee. Either way, the 11thranked Cardinal has played in every NCAA tournament since 1988. NCAA chance: History says yes.
CAL (8-0) >> The Bears are No.
13 in the AP poll, but they get more love from the RPI computer, which has them at No. 2. That’s one spot ahead of unbeaten Connecticut, which might have something to say about that when it visits Berkeley on Dec. 22. NCAA chance: Robust, but heavy lifting ahead in tough Pac-12.
SAINT MARY’S (5-3) >> The Gaels sit at No. 43 in the RPI and their only losses have come at the hands of Pac-12 teams ranked Nos. 8, 9 and 13 in the AP Top 25. Their next chance to beat someone of significance will be Dec. 22 at the Tulane Classic vs. Old Dominion or the host Green Wave, both top-30 RPI teams. NCAA chance: Need to beat Gonzaga.
SANTA CLARA (5-3) >> The Broncos had cold water tossed on a solid start to their season with a 51-point loss to No. 9 Oregon State on Sunday. NCAA chance: The 13-year drought continues.
USF (3-5) >> The Dons beat San Jose State by 22, but their RPI is 15 slots worse than the Spartans. Don’t ask me to explain it. NCAA chance: A snowball on the Golden Gate.
SAN JOSE STATE (1-7) >> The Spartans had 30 turnovers in a loss to Division II San Francisco State. NCAA chance: Never happened and won’t this year.