Maduro’s inner circle intact amid protests by Guaido supporters

CARACAS, VENEZUELA >> Venezuelans on Tuesday fed a wave of discontent seeking to drive President Nicolas Maduro from office, turning out in the streets in massive protests. But even as the opposition hailed a new momentum, its leaders conceded their bid to bring down the socialist government appeared to be morphing into a long-term struggle.

Through strong U.S. sanctions, international isolation and street protests, the opposition and its foreign allies led by the Trump administration had hoped to rapidly achieve Maduro’s ouster. But nearly three weeks after Juan Guaido, the head of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, declared himself the rightful president and became recognized by dozens of nations, including the United States, Maduro’s inner circle has showed little outward signs of cracking.

“No one can predict exactly how long this is going to last,” said Juan Andres Mejia, a Venezuelan opposition leader and close ally of Guaido. “I would like it to be days, but it could be weeks or even months.”

For the opposition, the protests are key to maintaining domestic pressure on an autocratic government that has led the nation into a humanitarian crisis, characterized by severe food and medical shortages.

In recent weeks, Maduro has suffered a handful of defections — and the opposition is aggressively courting both the military and government civil servants to undermine his support. But Maduro has also proved more resilient than at least some of his enemies had anticipated last month at the start of the current crisis.

Analysts call U.S. sanctions that target Venezuela’s key oil sector some of the strongest ever imposed by Washington. But as they rob the government of its single largest source of revenue — U.S. oil sales — they are also likely to deepen the suffering of the Venezuelan people.

“Sanctions could have an enormous impact on an already dire humanitarian crisis if the situation drags on,” said Michael Shifter, president of the InterAmerican Dialogue, a Washington-based think tank. “Obviously, the U.S. was utterly convinced that sanctions would be the final blow and the collapse would happen in a matter of days. It underestimated the regime’s resilience.”