2020 Countdown: Harris gets polling bump after debate.
Harris lags in fundraising but sees polling bump after debate performance
It’s 236 days until California’s presidential primary. This week we take a look at the latest churn in the field of presidential candidates and the first fundraising numbers for the second quarter of the year.
Swalwell out, Steyer in
Less than 24 hours after East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the presidential race Monday, he was replaced by another Bay Area candidate, billionaire donor and former hedge fund chief Tom Steyer. But while Steyer is as much of a long-shot as Swalwell, his wealth affords him more abil
ity to make waves in the contest: He has said he plans to spend $100 million of his own money on the campaign. Swalwell, on the other hand, is still paying off student loans.
Steyer didn’t waste any time showing off his political force. His campaign launched a $1.4 million TV ad blitz Wednesday, hitting the airwaves in the four early states as well as national ads on CNN and MSNBC. The introductory spots show Steyer in front of a barn as he talks about his work on political causes and argues that corporations have too much power in the U.S.
Few of the other candidates have aired any TV ads, with nothing close to this scale. But the more he spends, Steyer will face a stronger backlash from candidates like Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, who have been vocally arguing this week that billionaires shouldn’t be able to buy their way into elections.
“His challenge is to convince people that this isn’t a vanity exercise,” said Jessica Levinson, a Loyola Law School professor. “If you had $100 million, think of all the things you could have done with that money instead of a likely failed run for president.”
One example: Steyer could have paid off the fines of about 70,000 Floridians who aren’t allowed to vote because they owe court fees, fines and penalties, allowing them to register in time for the 2020 election, according to an estimate by the news website Slate. Or he could have donated the cash to a SuperPAC supporting the Democratic nominee against President Trump.
Meanwhile, Swalwell’s exit could be the first of a wave of candidates edging toward the exits because they are in a similar position as the East Bay congressman: languishing between 0 and 1% in the polls, struggling to recruit donors and failing to attract media attention.
One of those is former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. Several of his top campaign staffers jumped ship and privately urged him to withdraw from the race over the past two weeks, although he has vowed not to quit. Others, like Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, who didn’t make it into any of the debates, will also face questions about how long they can last in the race.
Harris lags in fundraising but gets debate bump
Sen. Kamala Harris saw a groundswell of national attention and a major polling bump after challenging former Vice President Joe Biden over his stance on busing and school integration at the Democratic debate. But she’s still behind when it comes to the money race.
Harris raised “nearly $12 million” between April and June, the second fundraising quarter of the year, her campaign said in a statement. That’s substantially lower than any of the four other top candidates in the race, and less than half the eye-popping number reported by South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who took in $24.8 million — likely thanks in part to tech money from the Bay Area.
Still, the report covers only a couple of days after her debate performance. In the 24 hours after the debate, Harris’ campaign said, she raised $2 million online from 63,277 people. Her campaign sold 1,400 “That Little Girl Was Me” T-shirts with a photo of Harris as a child, which went for $29.99 each. If she can keep up her momentum, Harris will be
on track for a stronger financial showing in future months.
We’ll get a better look at all the fundraising data when the campaigns file their Federal Election Commission reports, which are due Monday. Here’s how much each candidate who has announced their haul raised over the quarter:
• Pete Buttigieg: $24.8 million
• Joe Biden: $21.5 million
• Elizabeth Warren:
$19.1 million
• Bernie Sanders: $18 million
• Kamala Harris: less than $12 million
• Michael Bennet: $2.8 million
• Steve Bullock: $2 million
• John Hickenlooper: $1 million
Who’s leading this week in…
Facebook ad spending (nationwide): Former Obama housing secretary Julián Castro shot up in the rankings this week, spending $230,000 to promote his attention-grabbing performance in the Democratic debate.
That spending helped him reach the 130,000 individual donor threshold to get into the September debates, although he needs to meet the polling requirement to earn his place on the stage.
Google search traffic (California): While Harris and Biden dominated search traffic for the first part of the week with news about their sniping over the former vice president’s busing record, Swalwell and then Steyer eclipsed them both with their respective announcements ending and launching presidential campaigns.
Ask the candidates
Wonder how the California primary works or what to expect? Have a question for a specific presidential candidate?
Email me at ctolan@ bayareanewsgroup.com or message me on Twitter @caseytolan, and we could include the answers in a future column. Feedback and ideas are always welcome.