New-look Warriors open season at Chase Center tonight.
Warriors embark on season of change with a whole lot of questions
In the wake of an NBA Finals loss, Kevin Durant’s departure and moving into a new arena, the Warriors faced several questions as they opened training camp three weeks ago. Yet, the preseason may have given rise to even more questions than answers.
Here are the biggest concerns facing the Warriors ahead of the regular-season opener against the Clippers tonight.
HOW MANY POINTS WILL STEPH CURRY SCORE PER GAME? >> The season before Durant’s arrival, Steph Curry scored 30.1 points per game on his way to winning the scoring title and becoming the first unanimous MVP in league history. Now Curry is back in a similar situation. There is no scorer at his level he has to defer to, even a little bit, especially for as long as Klay Thompson is out rehabbing a torn ACL.
There’s no reason to think Curry won’t average at least 30 points per game this season. He averaged 27.3
points per game last season with Durant and a healthy Thompson. Without Durant and Thompson, and with Draymond Green on the floor, Curry averaged 41 points per 36 possessions. If his preseason outburst of 40 points in 25 minutes is any indication, this is the most runway Curry has ever had while in his prime. The scoring title could again be in play. WILL GREEN SHOOT MORE? >> Green almost stopped shooting altogether last season, averaging 6.4 shot attempts per game. His 422 attempts all season were the lowest since his rookie season. For reference, that’s how many 3s Lakers forward Kyle Kuzma took last season.
There is no doubt Green is a star player, one of the top 20-25 players in the league, but he doesn’t score like one. He could help the Warriors by inching closer to nine or 10 shots per game this season, but it really only helps if he rediscovers his 3-point stroke. Green made just 28.5 percent of his 3s last season. He needs to get to 35 percent, at least, for opponents to begin respecting that shot even a little bit.
CAN THE BENCH TREAD WATER? >> During the Durant era, the Warriors had the second-, third- and ninthbest benches in the league, outscoring opponents by as many as three points per 100 possessions. However, during those years, the bench’s production waned, finding a low of plus-1.2 points per 100 possessions last season.
One of the benefits of having had four (healthy) stars is that Kerr could leave one or two on the floor at all times. The bench always had an anchor. Now, that anchor figures to be point guard D’Angelo Russell. In the starting lineup, Russell will have to learn to play off Curry and Green but, by piloting the reserves, he will find solace in the pickand-roll, especially if he’s joined by a healthy Willie Cauley-Stein for several of those minutes.
If guards Poole and Alec Burks can make shots and do enough secondary playmaking, the bench’s offense should be just fine. The problem will be the defense. Rookie forward Eric Paschall could very well be the bench’s best defender. That’s a big difference from Andre Iguodala and even Shaun Livingston. If center Kevon Looney comes off the bench, that’s another plus defender, but not on the perimeter, and he could come at the cost of the offense.
D’ANGELO RUSSELL’S FIT >> Too much is being made of the fit between Russell and Curry. They will spend most of their time separated as Kerr staggers their minutes. However, they will need to find a way to co-exist, especially in crunch time.
The easy option: play Curry off the ball, let Russell run high screens, and dare defenses to choose. The problem: Russell is an inconsistent pick-androll play maker (the Nets scored on 40.3 percent of his pick-and-roll possessions last season, an aboveaverage but unspectacular mark) and that offense goes against the grain of what Ker has traditionally run.
The harder solution: Getting the most out of Russell in an adapted role. That will take Russell doing more reading and reacting and hitting catchand-shoot 3s, as opposed to running a slowed down, scripted pick-and-roll. All in all: less usage with a higher efficiency.
Coaches and players say this dynamic will take time, and they are right. Still, the Warriors are dealing with a ton of talent in the back court. These are two smart, skilled basketball players. The bet here is that they figure it out, and Russell becomes a better player because of it.
HOW HEALTHY WILL THE WARRIORS BE? >> The Warriors lost five of the 10 players who logged more than 900 minutes last season. With Thompson already sidelined, they are dealing with preseason injuries to centers Looney, CauleyStein and Alen Smailagic and guard Alec Burks. The Warriors are entering the season the way they ended last season: banged up and depleted.
The difference between last season and this season is their margin for error. Last year, they lost Durant in the second round of the playoffs and still beat the Rockets, then the Trail Blazers in the conference finals. They had the talent and depth to sustain an injury. Now, they don’t, and are even more top-heavy than before.
The Warriors were 5-8 in the 13 games Curry missed last season, and that was with Durant playing in each of those games. If Curry is out, they will be lead by Russell and Green. If Green misses time, they will be without their only elite defender. If Russell gets hurt, they will be vulnerable in the minutes Curry rests. The Western Conference is as competitive as ever and , to make the playoffs, the Warriors may not be able to endure 10 games without one of that trio.
Which brings us to our final question…
WILL THE WARRIORS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS? >> The eighth seed in the West last season, the Clippers, won 48 games, but the ninthplace team, the Kings, won 39 games, meaning that 40 wins or more would have been enough to make the playoffs.
Still, in the five previous seasons, the final seed in the playoffs won 47, 41, 41, 45 and 49 games, an average of 45.2 wins. It’ll take something around there to make the playoffs this season.
No team with a bottom-10 defensive rating made the playoffs last season. The Warriors had the second-worst defense in the preseason. Getting Looney and, eventually, CauleyStein back should help, but maybe not enough.
To make the playoffs, it will take Curry playing the most games he has in three years, Green having a career-best season on both ends, Russell fitting in sooner, rather than later, and maybe even Thompson returning for a late playoff push.
A lot needs to break right for the Warriors to make the postseason.