No. 1 seed for NFC postseason is just a pair of victories away
SANTA CLARA >> Win, then win again, and the 49ers are in the NFC playoffs as the No. 1 seed.
Simple, right? Just go eliminate the Los Angeles Rams’ playoff bid tonight at Levi’s Stadium, then turn around and win at Seattle for the first time in nine visits dating to 2011.
Otherwise? The 49ers (113) might not make it back to Levi’s Stadium, which has yet to host an NFL playoff game since its 2014 opening.
“That hasn’t crossed my mind,” defensive lineman Arik Armstead said. “All that is going to take care of itself, depending how on we play these next two games.”
The 49ers legitimized their playoff candidacy two months ago against the Rams, winning 20-7 in Los Angeles. On the flip side, that was the third straight loss for the Rams, who’ve wobbled to 8-6 as the latest victim of a Super Bowl-loss hangover.
Injuries and personnel turnover have followed both teams, but this 70-year rivalry rages on, with more
than bragging rights at stake.
The Rams aren’t yet eliminated from defending their conference title. They need to win out — at the 49ers, vs. the Arizona Cardinals — and they need the Minnesota Vikings (10-4) to finish 10-6.
If the Rams beat the 49ers, a rematch could ensue in two weeks back at Levi’s Stadium, if the 49ers win at Seattle. Lose that regular-season finale, regardless, and the 49ers are wild-card bound for a visit to the NFC East champion, either Dallas or Philadelphia.
But first, the regular-season home finale, and five ways for the 49ers to win it:
1. BOSA, DEFENSIVE LINE DOMINATE >> If the 49ers stop the run (more on that below) and force Jared Goff to pass from behind, then their defensive line could reclaim its early-season form and seize on mismatches in the trenches.
The Rams’ best lineman remains Pro Bowl-bound left tackle Andrew Whitworth, who earned Nick Bosa’s Pro Bowl vote.
“You watch tape and it’s unbelievable how you never see anybody throw a flag on him,” Bosa said. “Like, he’s so good at holding and doing all these small things and grabbing on to you.”
Whitworth, actually, has drawn eight holding penalties this season, including one for holding Bosa in the final minutes of the 49ers’ Oct. 13 win.
“I might think I’m having a great bull rush, but in reality he’s got my two pads and pulling me to the ground with him,” Bosa added. “He just uses what you do well against you.”
Meanwhile, the 49ers other linemen must dominate, including Pro Bowl snubs Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner, as well as the all-too-quiet Solomon
Thomas. Goff got sacked four times last meeting. He’ll be looking to pass fast, and to tight end Tyler Higbee perhaps more than wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
2. RUN DEFENSE RULES >> Goff will play with a right-thumb injury against the 49ers’ hungry pass rush, so the Rams ought to come out running the ball. Flash back to Oct. 13: a seven-play, runonly touchdown drive puts the Rams ahead 7-0.
Their peculiar use of Todd Gurley over the past year makes you wonder if they’ll ditch his load management and use whatever he has left in their do-or-die game.
Neither Gurley nor Malcolm Brown have rushed for 100 yards in a game this season and each is averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Gurley has run for 741 yards and 10 touchdowns, with one touchdown in each of the past three games.
The 49ers are juggling Sheldon Day, Solomon Thomas and Kentavius Street to see who can best replace nose tackle D.J. Jones (injured reserve). Once Gurley is past the line of scrimmage, he’ll be sure to encounter Fred Warner, a Pro Bowl alternate with a team-high 104 tackles.
Gurley did not face the 49ers in October, nor in the 2017 and ’18 season finales. But he produced two rushing touchdowns and one receiving TD in each of those season’s earlier meeting — Rams victories at Levi’s Stadium, 41-39 and 39-10.
3. DONALD EQUALS DOOM? >> Center Ben Garland’s first start as Weston Richburg’s replacement was a rough going last Sunday against the Falcons’ Grady Jarrett. Next comes fellow Pro Bowler Aaron Donald, the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year in 2017 and ’18.
The 49ers need their running back roulette to regain its clout among Raheem Mostert, Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman. They must try replicating
what the Dallas Cowboys did in last Sunday’s 44-21 win over the Rams, who allowed Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to each breach the 100-yard mark.
Mostert (662 yards), Breida (607) and Coleman (500) are the 49ers’ first trio to eclipse 500 yards in a season since their 1954 “Million Dollar Backfield,” of Joe “The Jet” Perry (1,049), John Henry Johnson (681) and Hugh McElhenny (515). The base salaries of Mostert, Breida, Coleman: “The 3.6 Million Dollar Backfield.”
4. SPREAD THE WEALTH >> Can George Kittle again prey on the Rams to reach a milestone? A year ago, he set the NFL single-season record for receiving yards by a tight end once he tallied 149 yards in a 48-32 win at Los Angeles in the finale. Now, he needs 112 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark.
Kittle is no secret weapon. And the 49ers need to remember he’s not the only weapon. Sunday, he drew half of Jimmy Garoppolo’s 34 targets (catching 13 of 17 for 134 yards).
5. NO STAGE FRIGHT >> This marks the 49ers’ fifth prime-time kickoff, and No. 6 could happen next Sunday night if their visit to the Seahawks is more alluring than other options, such as the Tennessee Titans (8-6) at Houston Texans (9-5) for the AFC South.
The 49ers are no strangers to high-profile games this season, not with their 8-0 start that gained them notoriety.
Triumphantly surviving the Dec. 8 dramatics in New Orleans was great for the 49ers’ confidence, and Sunday’s humbling defeat to Atlanta put the 49ers on notice that no game is a gimme. Looking ahead to their Seattle trip does the 49ers no good, other than to rest injured players who might be able to return, such as defensive end Dee Ford and safety Jaquiski Tartt.
“We’re in control of our own destiny, so we’re just going to try to win one game at a time,” Kittle said.