Tom Steyer says his surge in polls is no ‘sugar high’
Former San Francisco hedge fund chief Tom Steyer qualified for this month’s Democratic debate just a day before the deadline after two surprising polls found him surging in South Carolina and Nevada on Thursday night.
Steyer — who has spent more than $17 million to dominate the airwaves in both states — was at 15% among voters in South Carolina and 12% in Nevada in Fox News polls released Thursday. That put him in third place in Nevada, below former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders and tied with Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and a shocking second place in South Carolina, behind Biden.
The numbers vaulting Steyer into the top tier were the first debate-qualifying polls that found him above 5% anywhere.
“I hope I’m the opposite of a sugar high,” Steyer told the Bay Area News Group. “If I got there because I had a viral moment, you could ask is there anything behind this — but I didn’t have a viral moment. This is consistent momentum building over time.”
Though it’s too early to say whether the polls are outliers or signs of a real Steyer surge, there are reasons to believe the billionaire is actually doing well in Nevada and South Carolina, which will vote third and fourth in the primary
campaign after Iowa and New Hampshire.
The Fox polls, which were conducted SundayWednesday, are the first debate-qualifying polls in either state since November. Steyer has spent more than $8 million on TV ads in each state, utterly eclipsing his Democratic rivals — none of whom has spent more than $600,000 on ads there, according to FiveThirtyEight’s tracking.
Steyer also far outspent his rivals on digital ads in both states. He has spent an estimated $1.7 million on Facebook ads in South Carolina and almost $1 million in Nevada,
compared to only $201,000 and $151,000 spent by his next top rival, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, in each state.
The last Californian standing in the presidential race, after Sen. Kamala Harris and East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out, Steyer said he thought his success in the polls had more to do with his message resonating with voters than the magnitude of his money.
“I’ve been saying the same thing and we’ve seen this building from the first day I got in the race,” he said, citing his focus on issues like reducing corporate power in Washington, D.C., prioritizing the fight against climate change and contrasting his business success with President Donald
Trump’s “fraud.”
Of course, other candidates also have seen momentary jumps in the polls that evaporated within weeks — most spectacularly Harris, who soared after a standout debate performance in late June but quickly fell back to Earth.
And Steyer also has been spending huge amounts in Iowa and New Hampshire without as much upside in the polls, likely in part because he has far more competition there among TV and digital ads.
Steyer’s strategy — invest heavily in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — is the opposite of his fellow billionaire Michael Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor who has spent even more on ads than he has. Bloomberg has skipped those early states to focus on Super Tuesday contests like California and Texas, blanketing those expensive ad markets.
Steyer will join Biden; Sanders; Warren; former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg; and Sen. Amy Klobuchar onstage at the next debate in Des Moines, Iowa. It’s scheduled for Tuesday, but that could change if it conflicts with an impeachment trial that requires the attendance of all senators.
If Steyer’s rise in the polls is confirmed, he’s sure to get more incoming fire from his rivals. Though some have accused him for buying his way into the presidential race, he mostly has been an afterthought in the campaign so far.
Overall, Steyer appears to already have passed the $100 million target he set in July for how much he would spend on his campaign, blowing $116 million on TV ads alone, according to tallies by ad trackers.
Asked if he had any ceiling on how much of his $1.6 billion fortune he was willing to invest in his White House bid, Steyer said, “Who the hell knows what happens in a campaign?
“Every campaign I’ve ever run has surprised me one way or another,” he said. “I don’t know where this is going, either.”
“If I got there because I had a viral moment, you could ask is there anything behind this — but I didn’t have a viral moment. This is consistent momentum building over time.” — Tom Steyer, Democratic presidential candidate