It’s been all about parity amid the weekly chaos
Let’s begin with a look at the top tier of the Pac-12 standings: Colorado: 8-3 Oregon: 7-4 Arizona: 6-4
Arizona State: 6-4 UCLA: 6-5 USC: 6-5 Stanford: 5-5 That’s good stuff, if parity is your preference.
The Hotline’s crack research staff sought historical context and found the closest comparison, in the era of the 12-school conference, came in the 2013 season.
• That year, UCLA won the regular-season title with five league losses, a situation that could very well repeat this season.
Colorado plays five of its last seven on the road, including Thursday’s showdown in Eugene.
It’s not difficult to envision the Buffs losing two more, and all the four- and five-loss teams taking on at least one more defeat.
• Also that year, three teams finished 12-6, one was 10-8 and four were 9-9.
In other words, nine of the 12 finished .500 or better in conference play, and the winner was just 13-5.
That combination — the soft top and the wide middle — is precisely what’s unfolding before our eyes, one chaotic weekend after another.
NET update
Briefly, the latest NET rankings, with Quadrant 1 records:
(Q1: home wins over top-30 teams, neutral-court wins over top-50 teams, road wins over top-75 teams)
10. Arizona (2-5)
16. Colorado (5-2)
25. Oregon (6-4)
30. Stanford (2-5)
47. USC (3-6)
54. Arizona State (3-6)
60. Washington (1-7)
67. Oregon State (4-3)
70. Utah (3-6)
99. UCLA (4-6)
106. Washington State (1-4) 151. Cal (1-6)
That Arizona remains in the top 10 with that sub-.500 Quadrant 1 record and only
two true road wins (the Washington schools) speaks volumes about the flaws in the NCAA Evaluation Tool.
But the NET rankings reveal the most important development of the season, in our opinion:
The raising of the floor in the Pac12.
The bottom is so much better:
• 10 teams are in the NET top 100
• The last-place team in the standings, Washington, has a neutralcourt win over the No. 3 team in the land, Baylor.
• The lowest-ranked team in the NET, Cal, is just 151st.
(Last year, four teams were 100+ and the Bears and Washington State were in the 200s.)
The elevated floor, of course, limits the potential for resume-crushing losses by the teams contending for NCAA bids.
Night and day in 48 hours
The Hotline has been tracking results in the conference longer than we care to remember, and this combination stretches reality, even for us: Arizona State 84, UCLA 66 UCLA 65, Arizona 52
The size of the swing (31 points) is remarkable, but the direction is what truly leaves us amazed.
Plenty of teams have been thrashed in Tucson, only to turn around and win convincingly in Tempe.
But how many have done the reverse?
How many have been run off the court by ASU but dominated Arizona in McKale Center?
The Wildcats have gone entire seasons
without a double-digit home loss, much less a double-digit home loss to a team that was poleaxed by the Sun Devils. Because if you’re good enough to win handily in Tucson, you should never get blown out in Tempe.
For 40 smothering minutes, Mick Cronin’s Bruins looked like Ben Howland’s Bruins (at their peak), with contested shots, challenged passes and a territorial approach to the lane.
Imagine UCLA’s potential if Cronin is able to combine that defense — on a consistent basis — with an array of high-level scorers.
Actually, we don’t have to imagine it. We saw it unfold a dozen years ago.
Blueprint for pain
The Hotline certainly took note of candid comments from Arizona coach Sean Miller, who said of the UCLA hammer:
“They were the bigger, stronger, more physical team, and we really struggled against their style ... I knew the way they play would be very difficult for the makeup of our team.”
That, more than the loss itself, should be cause for concern among the Arizona faithful.
The Wildcats can be bullied on the court, and you had best believe every future opponent will attempt to replicate UCLA’s approach.
Few opponents will have the personnel, especially up front, or are as committed to the grinding, rugged, Midwestern style of play that Cronin prefers.
But matching UCLA’s level of tenacity isn’t necessarily a requirement for success against Arizona.
A close approximation should be enough to make the Wildcats squirm.
Now, and in March.
Those crazy Beavers
Oregon State has beaten Colorado on the road and Arizona and Oregon at home:
No team has a better combination of wins.
But OSU has lost to Washington, Washington State and Cal:
No team has a worse combination of defeats.
The Beavers, for good measure, also managed to win at Stanford and lose at home to USC ... by 20.
Their inconsistency, pure as the driving rain, is rooted in a defense that surely leaves coach Wayne Tinkle feeling like he has undergone a root canal.
OSU’s adjusted offensive efficiency (per KenPom): No. 28
OSU’s adjusted defensive efficiency (per KenPom): No. 174
When they’re locked in defensively, the Beavers are worthy of a top-four seed in the Pac-12 tournament.
When they’re not locked in, they’re worthy of a Wednesday flight out of Las Vegas.
Fast starts, recent fades
Whatever happened to ... OREGON’S SUPERIORITY >> Too little, too often from the big men and inconsistent shooting by wings Chris Duarte and Anthony Mathis.
USC’S TITLE CHARGE >> Soft defense and preposterous ballhandling (24 turnovers at ASU).
STANFORD’S EMERGENCE >> Erratic offense (KenPom efficiency rating: 142nd).
WASHINGTON’S POTENTIAL >> Clueless on offense, wobbly on defense and a 180 in every regard for Mike Hopkins, the two-time defending Pac-12 Coach of the Year who has no answers for UW’s reversal.