Two Republicans face tough climb in November election

Although two Republicans surprisingly emerged as top vote-getters in separate, crowded Bay Area legislative races Tuesday, they both face significant uphill battles in the November election against Democratic opponents in heavily blue districts, political observers say.

But state Republican Party officials note their success in the primary election reflect in part the frustrations some voters in the Bay Area and elsewhere in California feel about long-term Democratic leadership in the state.

Bob Brunton of Fremont, a former Ohlone College board member and perennial candidate for Assembly District 25, took almost a quarter of all votes counted by Wednesday afternoon, according to election offices in Alameda and Santa Clara counties.

He led Democrat Alex Lee, a former legislative aide, by roughly 10 percentage points in the race to succeed Kansen Chu, who decided to run for a seat on the Santa Clara County Board of Supervisors instead of seeking another term in the Legislature. District 25 covers portions of North San Jose, Milpitas, Santa Clara, Fremont and Newark.

In Senate District 13, Alexander Glew, a mechanical engineer who has run multiple times for Assembly, has a slim lead over Democrat Josh Becker to succeed termed-out Sen. Jerry Hill on the Peninsula.

Glew had just over 21% of all votes counted by Wednesday afternoon. Becker was close behind at almost 21%.

In both races, however, there were plenty of ballots left to be counted in the coming days, election officials said, so the totals still could shift.

Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University, said the reason both Republicans are leading their respective races is “very simple” and not a precursor of any big political power shifts.

Simply put, “the Democratic vote was split up” in both races, Gerston said.

In Senate 13, the candidates were five Democrats, one Libertarian and one Republican, and in Assembly 25 they were eight Democrats and one Republican. That played into the Republicans’ favor, he said, as did the fact that neither seat was defended by an incumbent.

The bottom line: “Add up the Democractic votes and they absolutely overwhelm the Republican votes,” Gerston said.

“So come November, in both the 13th Senate and the 25th Assembly, you can expect the Democrat to be the favorite, because in that case there will be one Democrat in both, in overwhelmingly Democratic districts, against a Republican,” he said.

Gerston said the odds are very long against a Republican winning a general election in the liberal Bay Area barring some “huge revelation or event” that taints the reputation of the leading Democratic opponent.

Jessica Millan Patterson, head of the California Republican Party, acknowledged that both seats would be “incredibly difficult to win” in November, but she pointed to early returns that show Republicans outperforming their registration totals in their respective districts.

She said the results signal that no-party-preference voters and “soft Democrats” are fed up with persistent homeless and housing affordability problems and are voting red for a change.

“California Democrats have really not been a friend to the Silicon Valley, and all over our state we are seeing people saying, “Enough is enough,’ ” Patterson said.

She said even if Brunton and Glew don’t win the “uphill battle” in November, their strong primary showing bodes well for the party’s long-term plans.

“What we’re really trying to do at the California Republican Party is start with getting their votes, and then the next step is bringing them into our party,” she said.

“We have to compete in every part of the state because the quickest way to balance for us in California is not by picking off a legislative district here and there, it’s by being able to recruit a candidate for governor in 2022 that can run and win,” she said.

Brunton agrees ideas can win the day.

“People like that all I’m talking about are solutions, not excuses,” he said in explaining his lead in the primary.

“I did pray a little bit about it, so maybe the Lord helped, too,” he added.

Brunton said he knows he faces a tough fight but pointed out he’s “100% focused on November” and likes his chances.

“I’m going to need a lot of Democrats to vote for me, and I’m planning to see if some of my (Democratic) opponents will endorse me,” he said.

Becker, meanwhile, said he isn’t surprised by Tuesday’s totals because Glew has drawn 20% or more of the votes in past Assembly races on the Peninsula. Lee blamed the large field of Democrats for the vote outcome in Assembly District 25.

Both Lee and Becker said they are waiting to see final vote counts to verify if they have a top-two spot for November, and both are confident they’ll win in November.

Gerston says they have good reason to be.

“If you’re going to Vegas and betting a dollar,” Gerston said, “bet on the Democrats.”