How coronavirus will affect NBA draft prep
Chances to see prospects have been curtailed by canceled showcases
It was late February and Larry Harris, Warriors assistant general manager and director of player personnel, was wrapping up a two-week trip through three European countries with assistant GM Mike Dunleavy Jr. when he read that the coronavirus had spread to Northern Italy.
“We had heard about the coronavirus, that it was already (in China), so we were talking about it, but it hadn’t hit the actual countries we were in,” Harris told Bay Area News Group in a phone interview Friday. “We had just gotten back (to the United States) within the week. Then we were heading to go see these conference tournaments.”
But the spread of the coronavirus, which forced the NBA to suspend its season last week, also prompted the NCAA to cancel the remainder of its postseason, including conference tournaments. For a team that has been preparing to pick near the top of the upcoming NBA draft since December, the combination of key event cancelations and social distancing ordinances represents an unprecedented scouting challenge.
Among the canceled events: conference tournaments scheduled to be held in the second week of March, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, the 2020 Nike Hoop Summit — an annual showcase for both domestic and international prospects scheduled for April 10 — and the 2020 Portsmouth Invitational — a chance for college seniors to impress scouts in April.
While May’s draft combine has yet
to be postponed or canceled, league sources are concerned that could be next.
It’s not so much the opportunity to watch prospects run around orange cones that will be missed, but the ability for teams to gather important medical information. During the combine in Chicago, prospects participate in a series of drills, meet with team executives and undergo medical testing.
All of those things can be replaced by the use of technology, except for the medical testing. Without the combine, however, front offices across the league will be forced to rely on reporting from colleges and agents, which can at times be insubstantial.
“The biggest concern would be the medical testing portion, which is vital.” Harris said. “The other stuff we can navigate through conversations and in film work and all that.
“It’s nice to be able to have our hands on these players now that they’ve been out of college for two or three months.”
Still, as far as the actual scouting, Harris estimates the Warriors were about 90% through their evaluations by the time the sports world was put on pause. The postseason tournaments, showcases and combine would have provided “finishing touches.”
In addition to the firstround pick, the Warriors also have two secondround picks to make, a pair of two-way contracts available and Summer League and G League rosters that are typically filled with a high number of undrafted rookies. Without events like the Portsmouth Invitational or Nike Hoops Summit, identifying those fringe players becomes much more difficult.
The Warriors pulled their scouts from the road during the first week of March — before it was announced that they had planned to play a game against the Brooklyn Nets at Chase Center without fans — as they awaited the league’s direction as to how to handle the coronavirus outbreak.
With the NBA expected to be on hiatus until at least mid-June, and more parts of the country being ordered to shelter in place by the day, the Warriors are preparing as though they have all of the information that will be available.
Between now and the draft, currently scheduled for June 25 — though the league calendar remains fluid — the Warriors front office will hold conference calls every two weeks to discuss draft strategy. The first official call was held this week, and included head coach Steve Kerr, who is spending time at his San Diego home watching video of prospects.
“It’s his system, his players. He knows what kind of player he’s looking for,” Harris said. “We’re going to give him the best information and the best idea of how we think this player or this player fits into his style of play.”
As the draft gets closer and they continue to watch film and potentially conduct FaceTime or Skype interviews with prospects, they will ramp up the frequency of those calls until they are daily. Eventually, they will settle on a top 15 and a list of roughly 50 other players who could be targeted in the second round or as undrafted free agents.
With a league-worst record of 15-50, the Warriors are poised to select in the top five for the first time since 2002. They will enter the draft lottery — currently scheduled for May — with a 14% chance to land the No. 1 pick, a 13.4% chance at the No. 2 pick, a 12.7% chance at the No. 3 pick, a 12% chance at the No. 4 pick and a 47.9% chance at the No. 5 pick.
Selecting the right player would provide the Warriors with someone who can contribute to a contending team and potentially develop into a franchise cornerstone as Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green — all of whom are in their early 30s — age past their primes.
They will be making their pick with little information compared to teams at the top of past drafts, but assert they have enough to make a quality selection.
“I’m confident that not only are we going to get the right guy,” Harris said. “But we’re going to have enough information and video work to be able to make that determination.”