HOLDING PATTERN
What season’s delay means to Major League Baseball, the A’s and Giants
We were supposed to have baseball last week. Real, meaningful baseball, with all of the Opening Day pomp and circumstance.
The COVID-19 pandemic changed all of that.
Although baseball is the least of our nation’s — our world’s — collective worries, the absence of a sport that’s defined by its steady presence has been jarring.
For now, we wait and wonder what could have been. And, in this vacuum of sport, there are a lot of questions to be answered.
When will baseball come back?
What will it look like when it does return?
What kind of long-term fallout will come from this delay?
Seeing as we have some time on our hands, A’s beat writer Shayna Rubin and I did our best to answer those questions:
RUBIN: At this point, the most radical don’t seem so farfetched. Practicality and absurdity might find common ground as the league maps out playoff scenarios, in particular.
MLB and team owners are going to prioritize a truncated season that milks as much revenue as possible. Commissioner Rob Manfred can’t speak in absolutes, but has made clear that a full 162-game season is near impossible.
MLB and the players’ union came to an agreement that will grant players a full season of service time and, at least, a $170 million advance paycheck for each team to be distributed for April and May. This should cover both sides in the event of a canceled season, which isn’t off the table. But, if health and safety permits, the league is intent on squeezing as many games into the 2020 year in order to stave off a financial meltdown.
First, we don’t know how many games will be played in a shortened season. But, for a regular season that starts on, say,
June 1 or July 1 or someday in between or even later, the league will have to squish some series into doubleheaders and limit off days.
Could the game itself be shortened? A seven-inning game may not be in the cards since skewed statistics could alter and disproportionately manipulate how a player is valued in, say, contract negotiations. But, if the player’s association provides wiggle room on that, we could even see some split double-headers.
If the league is intent on playing as many games as possible, they might try to knock some out in front of crowd-less stadiums — if CDC guidelines permit. That could at least stop the financial bleeding from a team standpoint. Gate receipts account for 30% of MLB revenue, but the league could benefit from providing live sporting events to a population cooped up indoors and starved for entertainment. Viewership might go up and those fan-less games could simplify how the rest of the season is planned.
The regular season may need to be extended into late October, which means postseason baseball could be played deep into the colder months. This is where the once-wacky idea of playing some postseason baseball in a neutral site may come into play. We may see the World Series held in a warm weather city or domed ballpark.
What kind of fiscal strain is this going to put on MLB teams?
KURTENBACH: A massive one.
Baseball does not have huge national TV deals like the NFL and NBA. MLB brings in less national TV money than the NBA, despite having twice the number of regular-season games.
Teams were doing fine before this delay — there are other sources of money for the league and serious revenue sharing — but they are effectively on their own to create serious profits (or in some cases break-even). The majority of most teams’ revenue comes through local TV deals, sponsorships, and ticket sales.
The A’s are especially impacted as this is their first season without a “smallmarket” handout from MLB, estimated to be worth more than $30 million annually. Additionally, the A’s have poor attendance (despite low ticket prices), no big-money sponsors, no local radio affiliate, and the second-lowest rated television product in all of baseball.
Oh, and the A’s are trying to build a new ballpark, too. Those environmental impact reports aren’t free. Nor can John Fisher, the A’s owner, be unaffected financially by current events.
The Giants are going to be hit financially by fewer games on the ticket and TV side, but they should be in a better financial position because they have big-time sponsors, a ballpark worth visiting, and a slashed payroll amid Farhan Zaidi’s rebuild. The business side of the team has also diversified its portfolio in recent years. Oracle has a $200-million deal for the naming rights of the ballpark, and the team is building real estate on the other side of McCovey Cove that could print cash when completed. We’ll see if the recession affects that project — it very well could — but if the Giants made prudent financial decisions during the team’s salad days, they should be capable of weathering this storm.
Could the season be canceled?
KURTENBACH: If people don’t get on board with current health recommendations, it absolutely could be canceled.
Let’s assume that’s not the outcome.
Still, when the season would start is anybody’s guess, and at some point, MLB might be forced to consider start dates that are too late for 2020 to be considered a real Major League Baseball season.
If that happens, there will need to be a lot of negotiating as to how contracts for 2020 would work, how to distribute money to the most financially affected teams, and how to handle an insanely complex 2021 season.
If that reality begins to come to pass, the only advantage is that there will be plenty of time to figure out how it’ll all work.
That said, I’d imagine Major League Baseball would want any bit of revenue it could get. Closeddoor games can still make TV money. A 50-game season can still bring in ticket revenue.
The league and the players have already agreed that whether the 2020 season happens in a truncated form — or if it’s canceled — it will count against contracts. Veterans in the last year of their deals will be free agents in winter 202021 — 162 or zero.
This agreement, which was reached last week, was a positive sign that bureaucracy and larger issues won’t be a barrier to playing baseball this season. But it also showed that the possibility of a full-season cancellation isn’t merely conjecture.
What kind of long-term ramifications could this have on baseball?
KURTENBACH: It would be great if this brought about shorter seasons and a more regimented schedule for Major League Baseball. But don’t expect that to happen; there is too much money to be made with the 162-game season.
Regardless, the ramifications will be copious. Everything will need to be adapted to fit the new reality. But those adaptations will likely only be shortterm. Baseball’s status quo might be accelerating its irrelevance in the grand sporting and entertainment landscape, but MLB has never made as much money as it did last year.
As we were reminded only a few weeks ago, as games continued despite common-sense warnings from epidemiologists and national, state, and local government health officials — for professional sports leagues, it’s all about the greenbacks.
That said, baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires on Dec. 1, 2021. Yes, the players and owners are working together now, but expect the actions taken during this crisis to be added to the list of grievances both parties will be bringing to the table come negotiation time. The likelihood of a work stoppage — either through strike or lockout — has increased. And it was already high ahead of this.
What rules could be relaxed in order to make a shortened season possible/ easier?
RUBIN: The simple answer here is that the league should allow expanded rosters all season. Sure, the dugout and clubhouse will be a bit more crowded with 40 players traveling with each team all season, but the perks outweigh the heft.
In the event that the season is not canceled, teams will need to have another spring training. Pitchers need to rebuild their arm strength and re-up the pitch count. Hitters need to find their timing. Spring training is long for a reason. An expanded roster could allow for a shorter spring on the second go-around, as it doesn’t require a typical active roster to be at full readiness. Someone like Chris Bassitt, for example, could round out a six-man A’s rotation. A larger pool of hitters can relieve pressure on a typical starter who might not be in rhythm amid an intensified regular season.
This should be an easy call. Especially if doubleheaders will be a new normal.
How does a shorter season benefit or hurt the A’s/ Giants?
RUBIN: A 2020 season postponed indefinitely is a huge gut punch for A’s fans. This was supposed to be the year.
Two months ago, A’s president Dave Kaval told a sea of green and gold at FanFest that the stars were finally aligning for Oakland. Kaval might’ve been speaking primarily about his quest to build a new ballpark in Oakland…but from a baseball perspective, it really did feel that the A’s were in prime form to contend beyond a wild card game, especially with Houston facing the fallout of its scandal.
The rotation would finally be at its peak with rookies Jesús Luzardo and A.J. Puk joined by Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea and Mike Fiers. Catcher Sean Murphy would splash into the rookie of the year conversation with Matt Chapman and Matt Olson stepping closer into the superstar spotlight.
The window was open wide.
Assuming baseball is played in 2020, the window is still open, just not as wide. And there are some silver linings to this delay.
Puk suffered a mild strain on his throwing shoulder a week prior to spring training’s cancellation. He had just begun throwing again the day before cancellation. On the season’s normal trajectory, Puk was a longshot to make the starting rotation, and it looked like Bassitt would slide back into the rotation. It was unclear, even, if Puk would start the year with the big league team as he began his recovery.
With the extra time to recover, Puk could easily reclaim his rotation spot. A few more months could also provide outfielder Stephen Piscotty more time to heal a rib injury that worsened over the course of spring training. Piscotty didn’t play a single game and was a longshot to make the original opening day roster. Now he could be back in play.
KURTENBACH: Unlike the A’s, this Giants’ season was going to stink. They were going to be all sorts of bad and probably finish in last place in the National League West.
The shorter the season, the more likely it becomes that the Giants — despite their many and obvious flaws — could make things interesting. A few hot weeks could put you in the wildcard hunt. Even the worst teams are capable of getting hot at the right time, as we learned last year with the Giants in July.
On a macro level, a shorter season does mean fewer developmental opportunities for the team’s young players. This was supposed to be the first season for the Giants’ top-tobottom developmental program. Fewer at-bats, pitching performances, and instructional opportunities mean that the Giants’ expectation of contention might need to be pushed back a bit, too.
Major League Baseball also shortened the first-year player draft from 40 rounds of selections to five, in large part because there won’t be an amateur baseball season this year.
Still, it’s a missed opportunity for the Giants to stock-up their farm system — even if it was pandemic shopping.
If the league cancels its international signing period and has no trades this season, that would only add to the difficulty.
Though, on the plus side, it is expected that bigleague contracts won’t be frozen, so we won’t have to watch as much of Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Evan Longoria as they wind down their deals.