More like ‘dimmer’ than ‘light switch’

When will life return to something like normal?

Gov. Gavin Newsom announced six “indicators” Tuesday for easing his nearly month-old stay-home order that has shut down schools and all but essential jobs and businesses throughout California, sending 1 in 9 workers in the state to the unemployment line.

Here’s a look at what that will mean for returning to something like the normal lives we had before, or at least getting outside and back to work and school. Q When will we get a clearer answer on how long this lockdown will last? A If the trend line of new infections, hospitalizations and intensive care needs continues to flatten over the next two weeks, Newsom said he may be able to offer more clarity on that then. But don’t expect the restrictions to change anytime soon. He expects the state to provide general guidance, but to defer to local county health officials. In the Bay

Area, those officials acted together in ordering a “shelter in place” three days before the statewide stay-home order. And Santa Clara County Health Officer Dr. Sara Cody, who led that effort, warned Tuesday that residents should be prepared for a “marathon, perhaps an ultra marathon.”

Q

Will the lockdown lift at once, just as it was imposed?

A

Unlikely. Newsom said Tuesday that six indicators would lead to modifying rather than removing the order, and that he won’t stop local health officers from maintaining stricter measures as they see fit. Newsom said modifications would come more like “a dimmer” rather than “a light switch,” and Cody said, “I don’t think anybody’s thinking about an ‘on’ or ‘off.’ ”

Q What are the six indicators the state will use to measure when the lockdown will end? A The first one is the ability to monitor and protect communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating and supporting people who are positive or exposed. The second one is the state’s ability to prevent infection in older or unhealthier people more at risk for severe COVID-19. Third is for hospitals and health systems to handle surges. Fourth is the ability to develop effective therapeutics — effective treatments to ease symptoms and help patients recover — to meet the demand. Fifth is for businesses, schools and child care facilities to support physical distancing. And the final one is for the state to have confidence it can reimpose restrictions and even the stay-at-home order, if necessary. Q How much testing will be needed to “protect our communities” and begin easing the lockdown? A Testing capability has been an ongoing frustration, but COVID-19 tests have become far more available than they were a month ago. California had completed 9,711 tests at the time of the March 19 stayhome order. By Monday that to 202,208, figure had with grown results pending for 13,200 more, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

But the answer of how many is enough isn’t so much numeric as about capability. State and local health officials want to be able to test all those believed to be infected, and to monitor all who were in close contact with them. They were largely able to do that in late January and early February, when there were very few cases. But the contagion has grown exponentially since, and it is now evident the virus can be transmitted by people who don’t feel sick, greatly increasing the demand.

In order to track cases and contacts, state and local officials are trying to staff up, shifting workers from other jobs and recruiting volunteers, and are evaluating various cellphone applications to help keep up with infected patients and their contacts to monitor their symptoms. Q What does this mean for schools? A Newsom said the current academic year “for all intents and purposes is over,” but as a parent of school-age children himself, he said, “We want to get our kids back in school, we are committed to doing that.” Still, he added that for students to return this fall, it won’t be the same. He suggested schools may have to “stagger times students come in” to reduce physical contact as much as possible, change lunch procedures so kids aren’t all eating together at once,

rethink physical education, locker-room dressing and recess. There may continue to be more “distance learning” by computer. “Those are the kinds of conversations we’ll all be having in the next couple weeks,” Newsom said. Q When will businesses reopen, and will there be restrictions on how they operate? A Newsom and his team indicated that nonessential businesses may have to modify their operations to reopen. State Health Officer Dr. Sonia Angell said, “It’s not about going back to where we were before, it won’t look the same.” She suggested restaurants

may have to have fewer tables to maintain social distancing. Newsom added that food servers may have to wear masks and rubber gloves, menus might have to be disposable and diners may have their temperatures checked at the door.

The “social distancing” and sterilizing measures that have become familiar in grocery stores may be extended to retailers and offices, with plexiglass sneeze guards around the office and at checkout stands and 6-foot markers to keep shoppers apart while waiting in line.

Newsom also said “telework” — workers doing their jobs remotely by computer over the internet, which was instituted

early among the Bay Area’s many technology companies — will likely continue where practicable. Q What about summer concerts, festivals, Memorial Day parades, the old ball game? A Sorry, but don’t count on seeing any of that returning anytime soon.

“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to herd immunity and get to a vaccine,” Newsom said. “Large-scale events that gather tens of thousands of strangers is not in the cards based upon our current guidelines.”