Strict Fuel Economy Standards May Be Rolled Back
On March 31st, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced new regulations governing the fuel economy of passenger vehicles sold in the United States. The new rules will ease requirements for model years 2021 through 2026, replacing more stringent standards negotiated under President Obama. Instead of mandating efficiency improvements of 5% each year, the new standards will require 1.5% gains. The relaxed regulations will weaken ongoing efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. NHTSA refers to the rollbackas the “Safer Affordable Fuel-efficient Vehicle Rule”, calling the new standards “tough but feasible”.
Many are dismayed to see Obama’s ambitious standards watered down. When the landmark agreement was announced at a ceremony in July of 2011, all the major automakers had signed on. Everyone acknowledged the dire need to reduce U.S. auto emissions. The Environmental Protection Agency estimated that the program would ultimately eliminate six billion metric tons of carbon dioxide. These kinds of progressive agreements are extremely difficult to negotiate.
The revised rules may not survive legal challenges. The NHTSA’S analysis justifying the rollback is said to be extremely shoddy. The Clean Air Act requires the EPA to regulate greenhouse gases, and some of EPA’S experts say that their agency was shut out of the NHTSA’S rule making process. There is also uncertainty regarding California’s legal right to enforce tougher standards. Thirteen other states have adopted our emissions requirements. Automakers need to plan their fleets years in advance, but fuel economy regulations beyond the 2020 model year are now in legal limbo.
The NHTSA does not intend to revamp the existing regulatory framework, just the level of stringency. A surefire way to reduce emissions is for automakers to sell smaller vehicles, but the current framework is designed not to encourage that. The complex rules motivate automakers to improve fuel economy through innovation without downsizing their fleets. Emissions targets vary from model to model, becoming less stringent as the size of a vehicle’s footprint increases. Manufacturers achieve compliance by improving the efficiency of the models that make up their fleets, not by altering themix. EPA real-world mileage estimates for 2018 show that Honda’s exceptionally efficient fleet averaged 30 MPG. Chrysler’s fleet of larger, more powerful vehicles is the least efficient, but it did raise its average to 21.7 MPG. Both achieved compliance, as did every other automaker. Tesla trounced everybody with 113.7 MPGE. The current approach produces modest fuel economy improvement across all vehicle types and robust development of game-changing hybrids and EVS.
If people who are concerned about climate change begin purchasing lots of smaller, more efficient vehicles, automakers are prepared to build more. Genuine efforts to reduce emissions are being thwarted by our collective desire for enormous, overpowered gas burners. From 1985 to 2018, average vehicle weight increased from 3,271 to 4,137 pounds. Average horsepower more than doubled, rising from 114 to 240. Automotive engineers still managed to increase real-world average fuel economy from 21.3 to 25.1 MPG. The best hybrid now gets 58 MPG. The best EV gets 141 MPGE. Automakers are building efficient vehicles. Consumers need to get on board.
Time will tell whether or not the rollback of emissions standards holds up in court. In the meantime, we need to recognize the significant environmental accomplishments of the automotive community and the extent to which consumers perpetuate our excessive auto emissions.