Floyd protests could risk spread of coronavirus.
An analysis says increase in deaths likely, but author supports what demonstrations are about
The protests prompted by the death of George Floyd could spark between 50 and 500 coronavirus deaths across the United States for each day of mass gatherings, according to a new analysis by a Seattle scientist, the first major attempt to quantify the viral danger of dissent.
But that forecast toll — fueled by an estimated 15,000 to 54,000 new infections spread during crowded chants, clashes and arrests — is relatively small compared to the overall U.S. epidemic, representing about a 3% to 6% increase above the nation’s total new daily infections, reports Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Seattle’s Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Institute who studies the spread of viruses.
The precise tally may never been known because the rest of America is also gathering in evergreater numbers, from book clubs and hair salons to restaurants and Las Vegas casinos. That also could fuel more infections.
“Because of the pandemic, we’re in a terrible situation where addressing systemic racism and bringing (the) economy back online carry health risks,” wrote VIRUS >> PAGE 4
Bedford, in a series of Twitter posts.
Public health officials across the nation have worried about a spike in cases as a result of the protests, sparked by the Memorial Day killing of Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis, police actions against demonstrators, and decades of anger over ongoing abuses by law enforcement against people of color.
But some say the health impact of racism is far greater.
The protests could indirectly save lives, if they bring attention to the public health disparities in minority populations, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, a UC San Francisco professor of medicine.
In the Bay Area, the risk of infection may be lower for protesters because an estimated 60 to 70% of participants appear to being wearing masks, said ChinHong.
The new analysis tries to account for mask wearing, which varies by region, as well as shouting, tear gas, pepper spray and closely packed jails, all of which increase the risk of COVID-19 transmission, Bedford added.
The estimate is “highly
speculative,” Bedford cautioned.
If the protests do drive transmission, case counts should start to climb this week, about six to eight days after many protests began. It might be possible to measure this increase, said Bedford, but it will likely be difficult to pick out a protestspecific effect in total case counts.
The new cases would likely have their greatest impact in the black community, which has experienced a disproportionately high number of coronavirus deaths.
But the impact of racism on African American health dwarfs any modest increase in COVID-19 cases due to protesting, said Chin-Hong, who grew up in a rural AfroCaribbean village in Trinidad and Tobago and now works to expand the pipeline of diverse students at UCSF. “Elevated cardiovascular mortality, cancer mortality, even the impact of lives lost and working days lost because of injuries from police and other violence — that is far more than the deaths from COVID,” he said.
“There are two public health threats and they’re both important,” he added. “Responding to racism means having your voice heard. To attenuate that risk, protect yourself” with masks, gloves or hand sanitizers and social distancing, if possible, he said.
Because the protests are outdoors, virus transmission is less likely. A study of another mass gathering, a carnival celebration in Gangelt, Germany, found that infection rates jumped 2.5-fold among participants.
Last week Gov. Gavin Newsom said the state should be braced for a jump in cases after protests.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has released a statement saying it is “monitoring closely” the demonstrations. “It is too early to know what, if any, effect these events will have on the federal COVID-19 response,” the CDC said. “Every local situation is different.”
In response to concerns, more than 1,300 medical professionals have signed an open letter, drafted by doctors and researchers at the University of Washington and posted online, asserting that the importance of protests outweighs the risk of COVID-19 transmission.
“Protests against systemic racism, which fosters the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on Black communities and also perpetuates police violence, must be supported,” the letter states, adding that demonstrators should still follow “public health best practices.”
But critics say the protests are reckless, noting that not so long ago public health experts chastised conservative protesters when they gathered at state capitols to demand an easing of restrictions to prevent lost jobs and failed businesses.
The Bedford analysis offers two different scenarios for crowd counts of 600,000 people, based on news sources and Wikipedia estimates of daily protests in more than 400 cities.
One estimate is low, assuming a fatality rate of 0.5% and a transmission rate of 0.9 — one person with the disease infects, on average, 0.9 others. This scenario would lead to 1,500 new infections each day and 15,000 “secondary” infections among protestors’ friends and family, eventually causing 50 to 75 deaths. The higher estimate assumes a transmission rate of 0.95 and a fatality rate of 1%. This scenario would lead to 3,000 new infections a day and a total of 54,000 “secondary” infections, causing 500-540 deaths.
If the virus is present in 0.5% of the general population, an estimated 3,000 protesters could have active infections and pose a risk to others. The U.S. has 1.5 million current infections, and 20,000 new cases are confirmed every day, on average.
Bedford, who has been tracking the pandemic since January, said he supports the protests.
“The appalling killing of George Floyd and video after video after video of police brutality cements the elemental rightness of the Black Lives Matter cause,” he wrote. “I feel it is my job as a scientist,” he added, “to provide my best estimate of the amount of viral transmission the protests are likely to cause.”