AN EASIER PATH
The A’s are built well to make it into this year’s new expanded playoff field
The Oakland A’s roster, as it stands, is constructed to compete for an American League West division title. The goal — even in a season not obstructed by a global pandemic — is to overthrow the Houston Astros’ tainted reign.
Even if the A’s won’t be tempted away from the division title goal, the new expanded playoffs provide a clearer path in 2020 to more postseason games than the single wild card loss they’ve suffered each of the last two seasons.
“I talked the other day that without 162 games letting everything even out, there’s more randomness injected into everything we do,” A’s general manager David Forst said. “Yes, we very famously said in the past that the playoffs are the most random time in the year. No different than a onegame playoff. But, going 2 out of 3 is a little less random than a one-game playoff.”
Even if the A’s have submitted to randomness, the mix of talent on this roster and the
new postseason format could help carry them to the long run that’s eluded them.
How the A’s are projected to finish plus postseason format
FanGraphs projects the A’s will go 31-29 in a 60game season, which has them finishing second to the Astros (35-25). The new postseason structure has the top eight teams from each league making the cut. The wild-card series consists of all eight teams playing their seed counterpart (No. 1 vs. No. 8, No. 2 vs. No. 7, etc.) in a threegame series. Then traditional division, championship and World Series follow with seeding matchups still in place. Based on projections, here’s where the American League might look come October. Houston Astros 35-25 New York Yankees: 3426
Tampa Bay Rays: 32-28 Minnesota Twins: 32-28 Oakland Athletics: 31-29 Cleveland Indians: 31-29 Los Angeles Angels: 3030
Boston Red Sox: 30-30 A division title in this new format could set the A’s up for a series against the Red Sox or Angels rather than a series against the Twins or Rays. Talentwise, there’s a considerable gap between those two sets of opponents, with the Twins’ power and the Rays’ depth. And, clearly, one win or loss in the regular season can separate each contender from a postseason matchup dream or disaster.
A’s three-game series advantage: Depth
A one-card wild card provides no space to work in the margins, to utilize a team’s depth that might’ve gotten them to the postseason in the first place.
The A’s consecutive wildcard losses quickly exposed their weakness du jour. In 2018, it was a dearth of rotational depth. In 2019, a fatigued offense unable to adapt or adjust in-game.
It’s unclear how the 60game season might impact hitters’ health. On the one hand, there are fewer games for hitters can spread themselves thin. However, the mad sprint might force hitters to overextend. Fatigue and injury seemed to do the A’s offense in last October — no one in that powerful lineup could muster a rally in the September games leading up to the postseason one.
Still, a three-game series can allow the A’s to be more matchup-oriented to gain an advantage. By October, we will know more about the matchup advantages to prioritizing bats in a crowded infield that consists of Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, Franklin Barreto and Vimael Machin. Every outfielder can move around positionally and, in some instances, slide into the infield. If star players are slumping — like Khris Davis and, at the time, Matt Chapman last year — it may not seem far-fetched over a three-game series to tinker with the lineup within a game, mixing and matching hotter hands.
More innings allow a bit more space for risk, and the A’s have the offensive depth and player versatility to get creative.
More depth within the pitching staff
Sean Manaea was the right choice to pitch in last year’s wild card game. He’d delivered a sub-2.00 ERA in five games back from his shoulder surgery. Even if his velocity wasn’t at its peak, his secondary offerings were befuddling opposing hitters. But, one slip-up (compounded by a tired offense) sent the 97win season down the drain.
The A’s rotational and bullpen depth could give them a huge advantage in a three-game series. Picture this: Frankie Montas and Jesús Luzardo starting the first and second games. A.J. Puk, Sean Manaea or, perhaps, Chris Bassitt and Yusmeiro Petit piggybacking to keep a fresh rotation of arms cycling through opposing lineups throughout the series.
Piggybacking may not play a major factor during the regular season because it can exhaust a bullpen. But the strategy has its perks in more pivotal games. In a playoff series, the A’s have Cy Young-caliber arms and strong longrelief options to use piggybacking to their advantage.
Remember, in last year’s postseason loss, the 21-year-old Luzardo came in and tossed three shutout innings, allowing one hit, two walks, with four strikeouts. The strategy’s infrastructure is there, and the A’s pitching staff is perfect for it.
There won’t be home field advantage ... but the A’s might have one.
What’s a home field advantage without fans in the stands?
“I’m not sure if there’s any home field advantage to play in a building without any fans,” Forst said.
True, but if the A’s can get home field advantage, they’ll have an edge on any other team with it.
The Coliseum air is notoriously difficult to cut through, power-wise. But A’s players last year said they understand better than any other team how to cut through the marine layer for home runs.
Without fans in the stands — as of now — during the postseason, that may be the best home field advantage in baseball.