U.S. death toll may reach 410,000 by Jan. 1

A new model often cited by top health officials raised its projections Friday, predicting over 410,000 coronavirus deaths nationwide by Jan. 1.

That would mean an additional 224,000 Americans lost in the next four months — more than double the 186,000 deaths reported by Johns Hopkins University.

The model from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation points to declining mask use in some regions from a peak in usage in early August. The scenarios in the model suggest 122,000 of those lives could be saved with near-universal mask use. It also warns the death toll could be much higher — over 620,000 — if all restrictions are eased.

“If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000,” according to IHME’s briefing. IHME expects the death rate could reach an unprecedented 3,000 a day by December, due in part to “declining vigilance of the public.”

The IHME model is more aggressive in its predictions than others. It comes a day after a new CDC ensemble forecast predicted 211,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19 by Sept. 26.

Lawmakers are reiterating a call for universities and college campuses to prohibit tobacco use this fall due to the coronavirus pandemic.

In a letter to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Democratic lawmakers urged the federal health agency to review its COVID-19 guidelines and recommend no smoking, vaping or chewing tobacco in schools.

The letter cites a study suggesting that young people who’ve used e-cigarettes can be five times more likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19. Stanford University researchers published the report last month in the Journal of Adolescent Health.

“Following the Stanford study, the University of Nevada, Las Vegas announced that it was banning tobacco use on campus in the fall . ... In making that decision, UNLV took into account that if someone is smoking, vaping, or chewing tobacco, they cannot be complying with requirements to wear a mask,” Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Senate Democratic Whip Dick Durbin wrote in the letter. With the public health risk posed by coronavirus, they said, the CDC should “act quickly”

More young people are getting infected with coronavirus at higher numbers. Experts fear that will only grow as many colleges and schools reopen.

In August alone, for example, nearly 7,000 people between ages 18-24 tested positive for coronavirus in Missouri, Gov. Mike Parson said. About 30% of the new cases in the state are among that age group.

“While young, healthy people are likely to have mild symptoms and quick recoveries ... they may unknowingly carry COVID-19 to someone older or with underlying conditions, who is unable to fight off the virus. This is why it is so important for young people to take precautions and understand the responsibility,” Parson said.

College campuses in at least 40 states have seen outbreaks of the virus and officials are urging caution as we head into the holiday weekend.

“I understand many will probably not be going home since they just got on campus. So they’ll be around and they’ll have some free time,” Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said. “You’ve got to be cautious over this weekend.”