COVID-19 hospital patients on decline

Number of people needing facilities lowest since April

In a strong sign the coronavirus is receding in California, the number of patients hospitalized with the virus fell over the weekend to levels not seen since weeks after shelter at home orders were enacted in the spring, according to the California Department of Public Health.

A month of steady decline, following a long summer surge of cases, reached encouraging milestones this weekend: hospitalizations have been cut by more than half since a peak in late July. Perhaps more critical, the number of people battling the virus in intensive care units fell to the lowest it has been since April 2.

“It’s looking better, it’s moving in the right direction,” UC San Francsico epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford said Monday. “We are trying to get cases down, trying to get hospitalizations down, trying to get mortality down and all those things are going down.

”Rather than this being a random event in the universe … this is all governed by human behavior. People wearing masks and socially distancing. That’s all good.”

Local and state officials put tight new restrictions on businesses and outdoor activities beginning in late June to arrest a surge that began after Memorial Day, and more actively encouraged safe behavior. More recently, however, those restrictions are being eased as cases, hospitalizations and deaths decline.

There were 2,869 patients hospitalized with the virus around the state Saturday, according to the latest update from the California Department of Public Health, hitting its lowest level since April 10. Meanwhile, 932 people were in ICU.

Southern California saw dramatic drops in the number of hospital beds used by people sickened with the coronavirus, led by a 40% cut in hospitalizations over the past two weeks

— UCSF epidemiologist Dr. George Rutherford said Monday. “I think you can confidently predict ... that a month from now we’ll see a decrease in deaths. ... The problem will be, are we seeing a decrease in deaths at the same time we are seeing cases go up?

in Orange County.

Four of the largest counties — Orange, San Bernardino, Riverside and Los Angeles — had practically returned to pre-summer levels, although they still account for the majority of hospitalizations in the state. Los Angeles, for instance, shed more than 65% of its hospital patients since its peak in mid-July.

There also are fewer patients hospitalized in the San Joaquin Valley, where the epicenter shifted in late summer, than in the Bay Area for the first time since May, despite its 4.3 million

population being about half that of the Bay Area.

In the Bay Area, 502 patients in hospital beds on Saturday were the fewest since July 2, although the decline has not been as dramatic.

“I’m delighted to see it but we still haven’t gotten back to where we were in terms of the number of cases a day in April,” said Dr. John Swartzberg, an infectious disease expert at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health.

With another 2,271 cases Sunday, the state has reported one-third the number of cases in the past week than at its peak and 36% fewer than two weeks ago. The test-positivity rate also continued to sink lower to

3.5% as of Sunday, which is less than half its peak rate and a 2 percentage point decline in two weeks.

Over the past few weeks, the number of cases have declined in Bay Area counties, with the exception of Napa, which saw a small uptick. Those numbers also were encouraging to Swartzberg.

“I think you can confidently predict, looking at this last week and the dramatic decline in all but Napa County, that a month from now we’ll see a decrease in deaths,” he said. “That said, the problem will be, are we seeing a decrease in deaths at the same time we are seeing cases go up?”

Following a record 30 fatalities reported on Friday,

there were another 17 in the Bay Area on Sunday, including a dozen in Alameda County. It was the second time in three days that Alameda County reported double-digit deaths, following two more days of the same last week.

Still, Alameda County, which at 332 has the largest overall death toll of any Bay Area locale, only made ninth on the state’s list counties with the highest number of COVID-19 fatalities. No other county in the region has 300 deaths, and just two others — Santa Clara and Contra Costa — crack the state’s top 15.

In total, there were 53 new fatalities reported Sunday, led by 18 in San Bernardino, 12 in Alameda

and 11 in Los Angeles. Kern County also reported six deaths, while there were three in Santa Clara County and one each in Contra Costa and San Francisco.

The 17 deaths in the Bay Area pushed its total over 1,300, but that accounts for a fraction of the statewide death toll.

Despite accounting for about 20% of California’s population, the Bay Area makes up about 9% of its COVID-19 deaths, which totaled 14,385 as of Sunday.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles County accounts for more than 40% of the state’s fatalities — 6,208 as of Sunday — despite making up about 25% of its population.