Brutal trends in jobless filings point to mixed recovery for California.

Grim unemployment trends point to ‘mixed picture’ for recovery

California unemployment claims are at “startlingly high” levels and the brutal trends in jobless filings point to a “mixed” recovery for the state’s suddenly wobbly economy amid the coronavirus, a report Tuesday from University of California researchers has found.

Jobless claims have remained at high levels in California, and have even been increasing in recent weeks, which suggests that the statewide job market is bouncing back unevenly from the effects of business shutdowns ordered by state and local government officials to combat the coronavirus, the California Policy Lab reported.

Including the week that ended on Sept. 5, initial claims for unemployment in California have risen for three consecutive weeks. Since the mandated business shutdowns, 8.39 million California workers have filed jobless claims.

“Our analysis paints a mixed picture of the recovery,” said Till von Wachter, a co-author of the analysis by the lab, which is based at UC Berkeley and UCLA.

The researchers worked with the state EDD to analyze California’s initial unemployment claims, continuing claims, and the new category of claims filed by self-employed and gig workers. The experts determined that some indicators provide hope for the job market but that others are negative.

One of the worrisome trends, according to the policy lab: California workers are reopening prior unemployment claims in growing numbers. “Additional claims held steady at a very high

level, indicating there were still a large number of individuals experiencing repeat layoffs in August,” the report said.

The policy lab identified a shift in the demographics of workers who have lost their jobs lately.

“Recent claimants are more likely to be male, older, and more highly educated,” according to the researchers.

The shift is emerging both for workers who have filed for the regular unemployment benefits as well as self-employed workers, gig workers, and small business owners who are seeking benefits through the new Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program.

“This is a sign that typically more stable workers may now be losing jobs,” the California Policy Lab stated.

The researchers also determined that the work status for a growing number of California employees appears to have deteriorated in recent weeks.

“A rising share of claimants are not simply seeing reduced hours, but have been fully laid off, at least temporarily,” the report said.

Ultimately, the researchers determined that the outlook is far from bright

for the California job market as it struggles to battle back after being bludgeoned by the coronavirus.

“Evidence on the state of the labor market from additional claims, partial UI claims, and benefit denial due to excess earnings signal a weakening of the recovery,” the UC Berkeley and UCLA researchers stated.

The experts also are concerned because huge chunks of the statewide job market are being battered by unemployment claims.

More than 3.5 million California workers representing 19% of the state’s labor force, were paid unemployment benefits during the week that ended on Aug. 15.

Since coronaviruslinked business shutdowns began in mid-March, about 39% of California’s labor force has filed initial unemployment claims, according to the researchers.

Part of the increase might be the result of fraudulent claims that crooks have filed in recent weeks. But the researchers believe that the claims are rising primarily due to fundamental weaknesses in the California economy.

“The number of workers receiving unemployment benefits remains startlingly high,” the researchers said.