Which pitchers get starts in a wild-card series?
A three-game postseason series is tricky. It lifts most of the pressure riding on a one-game playoff but doesn’t allow the same margin for error a seven-game series provides.
The A’s will play a three-game wild-card series. It’ll most likely be hosted in the familiar confines of the Oakland Coliseum. The organization will yet again be presented with its now annual question of who will be the starting pitcher?
The rotation is in better shape than in Oakland’s past two postseason attempts.
Don’t bet on Liam Hendriks or any other “opener” getting the ball and game’s first pitch The front office also doesn’t have to settle for one name, as they’ll have at least two games to throw out their best starters.
Who are those two starters? It’s hard to say. Though thrilling in nature, this short season hasn’t provided too much time or clarity on who is best equipped to handle the A’s two, or three, biggest games. It should be noted, the A’s doubleheader against Seattle on the season’s final Saturday could allow the A’s to start Mike Minor
and a 29th pitcher, such as James Kaprielian or Daulton Jefferies, to help best set up a desired rotation.
Here’s a best guess of how it might break down.
Game 1: Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt has been as steady as any starter in baseball. The A’s best shot to take an early series lead could be to put their most consistent starter on the mound first.
Asked at the beginning of this strange season who’d start a postseason game, and Bassitt might not even make the short list — only because his role in the rotation seemed, at first, temporary. Prior to the season, he was looking like a swingman. But he was rotated in when A.J. Puk’s left shoulder started barking again.
Asked at the end of a typical 162-game season, and he might not make the list, either. And that’s not to take away what he has done. He’s proven that he belongs in a big league rotation. But a full season could have provided the space for a Frankie Montas or Jesús Luzardo to match up their high-ceiling talent with the luxury of time to hone it. Granted, Luzardo was looking at some type of innings limit in a 162-gamer.
At this point, Bassitt could ease heart rates — he’s compiled a 2.57 ERA, which is good for fifth best in the American League behind Shane Bieber, Dallas Keuchel, Kenta Maeda and Lance Lynn. He’s self-depreciating when he’s stumbled, saying he was “embarrassed” when he didn’t adequately prepare for a start against the Houston Astros in which he allowed four earned runs in three innings. It was a start bookended by social protest down period, and he admitted he let himself get lost in the moment.
He’s been beyond locked in after that, accruing a .46 ERA with 19 strikeouts over his past three starts. Given his trajectory, the 31-year-old right-hander could be the A’s best bet in Game 1.
Game 2: Jesús Luzardo
If the A’s win Game 1, Luzardo has the talent and moxie to shut the door. If they lose, he has the ability to keep the team alive.
At his best, Luzardo not only looks like a future ace of the A’s staff, but also one of the game’s elite pitchers. He has the confidence to tinker with a new slider grip before a start and use it effectively. His fastball alone is one of the best pitches on the A’s pitching staff, it flies at 97 mph and also comes in a baffling twoseam variety. He has a devastating changeup and is at the top of his game when he can throw his slurve for strikes.
When he’s firing on all cylinders, he’s tough — as he’s been in a majority of his starts. But sometimes the learning curve catches up to the 22-year-old rookie. He’s still figuring out how to make the right adjustments mid-game; in particular, he tends to get roughed up when facing opposing lineups a third time through.
To help mitigate this, the A’s might keep Luzardo on a tighter leash, maybe with another starter on ice to piggyback. But the A’s bullpen is deep, boasting baseball’s best ERA at 2.42. Yusmeiro Petit, Joakim Soria, Jake Diekman (who’s yet to allow a run this year), can pick up a good bit of slack in case Luzardo falters.
Luzardo is a fast learner, mature beyond his years. He may not need the help.
Game 3: Frankie Montas
This assignment is tricky. If the A’s get to a Game 3, they’ll want the consistency of a Bassitt on the mound. But, he’s best suited to give the A’s their best shot at a series lead.
Montas is the best bet to start Game 3 because we’ve seen how he’s capable of performing. He was dominant for a few starts, earning him an AL Player of the Month honor after tallying a 1.57 ERA in his first four starts of the year. Then a neck injury forced him to skip a start, and Montas hasn’t been able to gain traction since. Grim starts intersperse with more promising ones, lately.
Montas hasn’t been throwing his splitter as much, either, which is the pitch that’s unlocked his potential. The 27-year-old right-hander has been shaky, but he has the arsenal to lock into a must-win game.
What about Sean Manaea and Mike Fiers? Given Montas’ inconsistency, one of the two could very well pitch in one of the three games.
After a slow start, Manaea’s regained confidence in himself and is putting together strong start after strong start. Last year’s wild-card game starter is having a similar stretch that he had prior to their one-gamer against Tampa Bay in 2019, boasting a 2.25 ERA over his past five starts.
Similarly, Fiers is finding his stride as he racks up starts, putting together a 3.13 ERA over his past four starts.
Their opponent might dictate the rotation, too. Could the A’s look for an edge by starting Manaea over Montas or Bassitt? The Houston Astros have a diverse lineup of right- and left-handed batters. Some of their best — Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa — are right-handed. The Cleveland Indians lineup is packed with switch hitters, which doesn’t provide much clarity in terms of matchups.