VTA warns of bumpy ride ahead
Proposed cuts could mean fewer buses and trains, end of late-night service
The COVID-19 pandemic is threatening to cast a long shadow over public transit and traffic in the South Bay, as Valley Transportation Authority leaders consider cuts to bus and light rail service that could outlast the virus’s grip on our daily lives.
VTA leaders will consider in the coming months three increasingly severe options that would slash service permanently starting early next year by 10% to 30% compared to pre-pandemic levels, saving the ailing agency between $24 million and $70 million per year.
Under the most severe cuts, VTA would slash bus and light rail service at all hours and across its network to levels not seen in 40 years. All service would shut down at 10 p.m., and two bus routes would be eliminated entirely.
In its best-case scenario, VTA would provide less frequent bus and train trips outside of peak commute hours, and light rail service would end at 12:30 a.m., an hour earlier each night than it does now.
Transit advocates say any cuts would be devastating. People who rely on VTA would face longer and less reliable trips, while those with any choice in the matter would be more likely to drive rather than navigate the spotty service — putting more cars onto trafficchoked roads and pumping more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. VTA estimates riders would take between 3.5 million and 9 million fewer trips per year under the cuts.
VTA officials are set to decide how severe their cuts will be at a meeting in December. The new service would go into effect in February.
“This is something that is really going to cause a lot of inequity, and cause a lot of people to buy cars they can’t
afford,” said Monica Mallon, an activist with the group Turnout 4 Transit.
Mallon pointed to VTA records showing that if the agency enacts the proposed 30% cut, it would provide about the same level of bus service it offered in 1980, when 600,000 fewer people lived in Santa Clara County. She is advocating for VTA to avoid the cuts by shifting money planned for capital projects to fund the system’s operations, something its board is exploring.
After other reductions to VTA service over the past two decades, Mallon said, “we were already in a death spiral, but this would be so much more extreme.”
The impacts would even extend to the Bay Area’s housing crisis: Developments that were eligible for grants or quicker environmental reviews because of their proximity to VTA lines could lose that special status if nearby buses and trains don’t run frequently enough.
And the $2.3 billion South Bay BART extension VTA officials proudly opened this summer could see fewer riders if passengers
face a long wait every time they transfer between the train and bus.
“Quality connections and coordinated connections are the foundation of any good transit network,” VTA Service Planning Manager Jay Tyree told the authority’s board at a meeting last week. “When you start breaking those down and folks have longer wait times to connect, then they just give up on transit.”
Agency leaders say they have tried to preserve ridership as much as possible, but face “tough decisions” as public transportation tries to position itself for a post-coronavirus world. VTA has not implemented any layoffs or furloughs to reduce its expenses.
“We are sincerely disappointed that we even have to have these conversations with our riders and the public,” spokesman Ken Blackstone said.
Like other public transit agencies, VTA since March has faced a financial double-whammy. The economic downturn the pandemic triggered has reduced sales tax revenue, by far its biggest source of funding. And the virus has decimated ridership, from about 115,000 daily passengers in February to around 30,000 since
April. Many of those who are still riding are essential workers, or residents like Mallon who don’t drive and depend on public transit to get around.
VTA is not alone in considering steep cuts. AC Transit officials could also slash East Bay bus service by as much as 30% next year, with plans that call for eliminating dozens of routes and reducing the frequency on others.
VTA has been providing reduced service for months amid health mandates; since August, it’s been running roughly 74% of its prepandemic service levels.
But that reduction can’t last. With social distancing-driven capacity limits, VTA officials say bus drivers must often skip passengers during busy trips, a problem that seems likely to worsen as more people return to work.
Ultimately, the severity of cuts will depend on a range of hard-to-forecast factors, such as when social distancing requirements might be eased, when schools resume inperson classes, whether state or federal authorities approve another round of emergency funding for public transportation agencies and how quickly the economy bounces back.