Hospitalizations in Bay Area decline at fastest rate of pandemic
Following its largest reduction in hospital patients on record — both over the past two weeks, as well as the past 24 hours — the Bay Area’s number of hospitalizations from COVID-19 fell to its lowest point since late June, according to data from the California Department of Public Health compiled by this news organization.
The 348 active hospitalizations across the region’s 10 counties, including Santa Cruz, on Saturday were 33 fewer than the day before, or a singleday decline of 8.7%. In the past two weeks, that total has fallen 30.7%, outpacing any other two-week period since hospitalizations in the region reached its high point, July 28.
The Bay Area has also outpaced the statewide decline in hospitalizations over the past two weeks. The total across California fell to 2,339 on Saturday — 18.7% fewer than two weeks ago and the fewest patients with serious cases of the virus since at least April 3. (At the time, however, there were many more “suspected” cases, otherwise known as those awaiting to take or receive the result of a test, which were far less accessible in the spring. The combined total of hospitalized patients “suspected” and “confirmed” to have the virus is at its lowest point on record.)
There is still progress to be made for the Bay Area to reach its low point, when the number of active hospitalizations hovered at about 250 from mid-May to mid-June. The patient count began to increase about a month after Memorial Day weekend and reached its high point on July 28, when there were 825 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the region. Since then, that number has shrunk by more than than half.
In A lameda C ount y, the total has fallen 36% in the past two weeks to 77 active hospitalizations Saturday. Contra Costa County has reduced its hospitalizations by 65% in the past two weeks, to 30 as of Saturday, and Sonoma County cut its count in half to 18.
Santa Clara County saw a rising number of hospitalizations beginning the previous Saturday and lasting for a week. But the county erased that spike and more as of Saturday, following a single- day decline in patients of 13.9% for hospitalizations there to hit their lowest point since July 6.
Last week, however, state health officials warned of “early signs” of a potential influx of hospitalizations that would nearly double current amount.
“As we see these trend lines, which have been coming down and flattening, look like they’re coming up … we want to sound that bell for all of you,” Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, said on Friday.
On Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom offered a similar warning relating to a plateauing number of cases and increasing rates of transmission in multiple regions.
Newsom cited “R effective” rates, or the average number of people a carrier of the virus is expected to infect, climbing close to 1 in the Bay Area and Southern California. In “Upper Southern California” — encompassing L. A., the Central Coast and parts of the Central Valley, as defined by Newsom — the rate had hit 1.02 in the past week. Any rate higher than 1 indicates the virus spreading, rather than receding.
Counties around the state repor ted another 2,037 cases of the virus Sunday, according to data compiled by this news organization, which kept that seven- day average at about 3,500 new cases per day, about where it has been for the past two weeks. The average number of fatalities has fallen close to its lowest point — 589 in the past week, or about 84 per day — since the second week of July, but has remained about flat, with the exception of a brief spike, since Sept. 10.
“While it’s true we have seen a three-fold decrease in the number of cases since our peak in mid-July, we are seeing early signs that those decreases are beginning to slow down,” Newsom said Monday. “They’re beginning to plateau as it relates to total number of new cases.”
Newsom also said he anticipated “a number of counties” moving into new tiers of the state’s colorcoded reopening system when that announcement is made Tuesday by Dr. Ghaly, the secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services. As of last Tuesday, every county in the Bay Area, except for Contra Costa and Solano, had entered the second, or “red,” tier, indicating “substantial” spread, while some had hopes of progressing even further.
“While it’s true we have seen a three-fold decrease in the number of cases since our peak in mid-July, we are seeing early signs that those decreases are beginning to slow down.”
— Gov. Gavin Newsom