California job market years from recovery; shopper optimism rises
The California job market is years away from a return to the lofty heights it enjoyed before the coronavirus unleashed wide-ranging economic woes, a UCLA forecast said Wednesday.
The outlook from the UCLA Anderson Forecast suggests the state’s pre- coronavirus economic boom, a period when the jobless rate was a record low 3.9%, won’t reappear for at least two years.
“A full recovery to pre-recession levels of economic activity is not expected until after 2022 in the state,” Leila Bengali, an economist with UCLA Anderson Forecast, wrote in the report.
Although a noticeable improvement might begin to emerge by the end of 2020, the report predicted the state’s return to a pre-coronavirus economy is in the 2023 time frame.
“We project that the state’s economic outlook will improve substantially in the third quarter of this year, but that a full recovery will take us past the end of 2022,” Bengali said.
Open theme parks, lawmakers say
State officials promised to issue guidelines last week on how to reopen theme parks across the state.
But Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday delayed new operating rules for theme parks following industry criticism of the proposed rules, state health officials said no announcement was coming Friday as negotiations continue.
A group of state legislators have been pressuring Newsom to open the gates at Disneyland, Universal Studios and other California entertainment parks after more than six months of coronavirus closures have left 135,000 park employees out of work.
A bipartisan letter signed by 19 state senators and assembly members calls on Newsom to issue COVID-19 health and safety guidelines that would allow California theme parks to reopen.
“We ask your administration to provide the theme park industry with their guidance documents promptly so they can ensure their preparations are consistent with state expectations,” the letter says.
California theme parks have issued proposed guidelines that are now familiar as part of the “new normal” in the COVID-19 era: mandatory masks, social distancing, increased sanitization, contactless payments, reduced attraction capacity and employee training.
Disney on Monday said it would lay off 28,000 employees at Disneyland and Walt Disney World, two-thirds of them parttime, as the company continues to struggle with the six-month closure of its Anaheim theme parks.
Shopper confidence rebounds
California shoppers turned upbeat this month as a slow reopening of the state economy boosted consumer confidence by the biggest amount in nine years.
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for California was at 92.3 for September — a six-month high and up from a revised 66.8 a month earlier. That 38% one-month jump for the index is the largest increase since the post- Great Recession days of January 2011.
Newsom’s pandemic-fighting guidelines have allowed many businesses to reopen or broaden their availability in recent weeks. This has gotten more Californians back to work, though statewide unemployment is still down 1.7 million workers since February. That’s likely why this yardstick of optimism is still far below the 115.9 reading of a year ago.
Two measures inside the statewide index show us …
• Consumers’ view of current conditions dramatically improved. The index more than doubled to 82.9 from 40 a month earlier but is still depressed from 155 a year earlier.
• Shoppers’ outlook grew brighter, scoring 98.6 for the month — that’s more optimistic than 84.6 in the previous month and 89.9 a year earlier.
Nationally, the U. S. consumer confidence index was 101.8 in the month vs. 86.3 a month earlier and down from 126.3 a year ago. U.S. shoppers’ view of current conditions increased in the month and was lower over 12 months. Meanwhile, consumers’ economic hopes were better compared with the previous month