Giants need starting pitching, but may lack cash for big names
In his first two offseasons as the Giants’ president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi has prioritized a disciplined financial approach to roster building that was unfamiliar to an organization accustomed to fielding one of the highest payrolls in the major leagues.
Zaidi has yet to sign a player to a contract worth upward of $10 million and last winter, infielder Wilmer Flores became the first and only Giant to sign a multiyear contract during Zaidi’s time with the club, agreeing to a two-year, $6.25 million deal with a club option for the 2022 season.
Despite that shrewdness, Zaidi and the Giants built a roster that came within one win of earning a playoff spot this season, a testament to his creativity and the organizational approach facilitated by manager Gabe Kapler to continuing development at the major league level.
Given the Giants’ desire to return to the postseason next year, it also seems as if the strategy of building a ball club on a bargain may need to change.
A starting rotation that featured three free agents — Jeff Samardzija, Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly — must be completely rebuilt, and there’s no question that targeting starters is at the top of the franchise’s offseason agenda.
“To have enough pitching to get through a 162 games from a starting pitching standpoint, that’s probably going to be the biggest priority and challenge for us this offseason,” Zaidi said on KNBR on Wednesday.
The Giants are fine letting Samardzija explore new opportunities, but Zaidi has indicated several times in recent weeks the organization expects to engage Gausman and Smyly about the possibility of returning to San Francisco next season. When healthy, the pair of pitchers who were designated for assignment in 2019 and agreed to oneyear contracts with the Giants were clearly the team’s best options in the rotation.
“We’re certainly going to have conversations about bringing (Gausman and Smyly) back, but with the seasons they had, we know they’re going to have plenty of suitors,” Zaidi said during his radio interview. “We’re certainly going to make it a priority but we know that they’re going to have a lot of opportunities as well.”
Until contracts belonging to Johnny Cueto, Buster Posey, Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford expire at the end of the 2021 season, it appears unlikely Zaidi and the Giants will be in position to make significant splashes in the free agent market. There’s little doubt top free agent starters such as Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman would immediately become front- of-the-rotation forces if they signed with the Giants, but both will require more substantial financial investments than the organization might be willing to make until next winter.
After playing 33 home games this season in front of empty stands at Oracle Park, the Giants can’t exactly use the revenue from selling cardboard cut- outs to lure top free agents.
The strategy of bargain hunting will likely need to change for the Giants to create a sustainable
model for success, but it seems as if a relatively underwhelming market of elite starting pitching options might also prevent Zaidi from targeting players who would warrant the type of hyped arrivals Cueto and Samardzija received when former executives Bobby Evans and Brian Sabean committed nearly a quarter of a billion dollars to sign them back in December 2015.
Another factor that might preclude the Giants from pursuing starters on long-term deals?
The growing belief within the baseball industry that the financial fallout resulting from the 2020 season will lead to a larger number of players being non-tendered ahead of arbitration. Executives including Zaidi foresee a market in which a surplus of younger and often less consistent pitchers become available because teams believe they’ll be able to find upgrades at cheaper prices.
With the Giants’ recent track record of helping Gausman and Smyly come closer to reaching their full potential immediately following rough seasons, Zaidi is hopeful pitchers seeking opportunities to prove themselves will view San Francisco as a more desirable destination in free agency.
For an organization that should still have more financial flexibility than most of its peers and a strong desire to build off the strides made during the 2020 season, it may appear counterintuitive to cycle through low-profile free agents, non-tendered pitchers and possible waiver wire targets to build a competent starting rotation that would successfully contend over the course of a full 162-game season.
If the organization is able to convince one or both of Gausman and Smyly to return next season, the job of penciling in a rotation seems more feasible. The Giants should have Tyler Anderson and Logan Webb back, and right-hander Tyler Beede will be returning from Tommy John surgery.
Signing four or five free- agent pitchers with starting experience to smaller contracts may work out well if two or even three emerge as competent options. It might be a safer bet than throwing $25 million at Bauer or bringing Stroman in on a four-year deal, but there’s risk involved with every approach.
The road to building a playoff-caliber rotation isn’t easy. All it would take is a few potholes to put the Giants on their couches for a fifth consecutive October.