Governor Puts the Green Pedal to the Metal
On September 23rd, Governor Gavin Newsome directed the California Air Resources Board to phase out the sale of vehicles with internal combustion engines by 2035. The sensible move to battle climate change was met with predictable criticism from naysayers claiming that a fifteen year transition to electric vehicles is unworkable. They’re dead wrong. Doing nothing about the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unworkable. Newsome’s timetable is in step with global environmental efforts and automotive trends.
Experts at the International Energy Agency understand that global EV adoption is accelerating rapidly and has the potential to provide desperately needed emission reductions. Their recent publication, “Global EV Outlook 2020”, points out that the total number of EVS on the world’s roads grew from 17,000 in 2010 to 7.2 million in 2019. EVS currently account for less than 3% of global car sales, but sales have increased about 30% each year since 2016 and are poised to skyrocket. Charging infrastructure is also expanding rapidly, outpacing the sale of electric vehicles in many markets.
Cynical arguments exaggerating the impracticality of EVS are based on the expensive, low-range, slowcharging EVS of yesterday. IEA scientists recognize the remarkable improvements in the efficiency and cost of lithium-ion batteries, noting that energy density has doubled since 2012 and will surely continue to improve. The cost of a kilowatt-hour of battery storage has plunged from $1,100 in 2010 to $156 today. It will soon drop below $100, making EVS cost-competitive with gas burners. The IEA estimates that a typical EV will have a range of 350-400 miles by 2030. Level-3 supercharging promises to speed up refueling at public charging stations dramatically, complementing the remarkable convenience of home charging.
Newsome’s ambitious 2035 deadline is portrayed as extreme, but it is comparable to goals being voiced by other nations. The IEA reports that 17 countries have established target dates for the end of internal combustion engines. Canada, China, Finland, France, India, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are all participating in an international effort called the EV30@30 Campaign that aims to increase the market share of EVS to 30% by 2030. EV adoption is currently being supported by vehicle emission standards and government rebates, but the IEA stresses the importance of goals and timetables. Target dates for 100% electrification provide certainty to automakers and their supply chains, charging station providers, and consumers.
Pundits who ridicule Newsome seem oblivious to the extensive international efforts supporting EVS. The revolutionary transformation of the auto industry has also escaped their notice. When your head is buried in the sand, you miss out on quite a bit. Tesla is now worth more than GM, Ford, and Chrysler combined. Every major automaker understands the grave threat of climate change and is investing heavily in electrification. The IEA reports that roughly 200 new EV models will be brought to market over the next five years.
Californians should be proud of our sustained commitment to the ongoing international effort to defeat climate change. We need to steadily replace all major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, including those from transportation, and these complex industrial transitions will take time to achieve. Governor Newsome’s goal is realistic, and it deserves our unanimous support.