Prop. 22 struggling despite late money
Polling shows measure having trouble meeting 50% threshold for passage
Bay Area “gig- economy” companies fighting state law and court rulings that would force them to classify their workers as employees have pumped another $9 million into their massive push for Prop. 22, California’s most expensive ballot initiative ever.
The total spent in the record-breaking campaign is now nearing $230 million. Prop. 22’s supporters have raised about $208 million while opponents, mostly labor unions, have reported about $19 million, including a blizzard of late contributions topping $3 million.
If approved, Proposition 22 would override California’s AB-5 law requiring most gig workers — including drivers for Uber, Lyft, Instacart, DoorDash and Postmates — to be treated as employees, with corresponding benefits such as a minimum wage and overtime.
Recent polling showed the measure struggling to meet the 50% threshold for passing, though it has gained support since mid- September. Both sides’ own surveys would have already been showing the fight coming down to a key voter bloc, said Marva Diaz, a political consultant at California Target Book, a non-partisan subscription-based tip sheet.
“Republicans are supporting it overwhelmingly while the Democrats are not,” Diaz said. “It’s really coming down to the no-party-preference and the minor party voters. The campaigns will be looking for those undecided moderate voters who sometimes vote Republican and sometimes vote Democrat: They will be pivotal.”
While the side with the most money has won all of the state’s five costliest proposition fights to date, when enough voters are predisposed on an issue, that pattern tends to break, Diaz said.
“In this case, we are a heavily Democrat, bright blue state, and the opposition (to Prop 22) is led by labor, which Democrats typically support,” she said.
Hotly contested campaigns often see a flurry of
late contributions, and Prop 22 will be fought to the end, Diaz said. “TV ads, mailers, radio ads, digital ads, phone calls and text messages — it will be highly unlikely that any voter will not be contacted in some way or another by the campaigns on a daily basis at this point,” she said.
The latest totals from the Secretary of State’s office show that as of Tuesday, Uber had added $3.75 million in contributions, bringing its total to $61 million. Groceries-to-your-door company Instacart, with a $3.95 million late addition, has put in $35 million. Delivery company Postmates has pushed its total contribution to $15 million so far with another $1.5 million. Lyft has put in $49 million and restaurant- delivery firm DoorDash has contributed $48 million.
Late contributions from the No side were led by the California Labor Federation, AFL- CIO, with $1.1 million, plus another $500,000 from unions representing grocery and construction workers and about $ 450,000 from a Service Employees International local in Los Angeles.
The measure’s money dwarfs the previous high mark, reached in 2008 when $155 million was raised in relation to four related initiatives on Native American gambling operations, with proponents winning after contributing $115 million, according to Ballotpedia.
Prop. 22 is another front in a longrunning war between the state and the gig-economy companies over the classification of workers. AB-5 took effect Jan. 1, but the big gig firms have refused to classify drivers as employees as they battle the state in court. A California appeals court last week upheld an order requiring Uber and Lyft to treat their California drivers as employees, not independent contractors. If the measure passes, it would override AB- 5 and court rulings interpreting it, said William Gould, an emeritus professor at Stanford University’s law school.
Nearly a million gig jobs are at risk if Prop 22 fails, because of “the potential loss of app-based ride-share and delivery services after the election,” said Yes campaign spokesman Geoff Vetter. The campaign claims support from more than 120,000 app-based drivers, plus leaders in social justice, public safety and small business.
The “No on Prop 22” campaign argues that the initiative would let the companies “continue exploiting their workers” by depriving them of legally required benefits, including paid sick
leave and unemployment insurance. The initiative’s claim that drivers would receive at least 120% of minimum wage is false, as they wouldn’t be paid for time they’re on the app but awaiting work, said Cherri Murphy, who drove for Lyft until the coronavirus pandemic and is an organizer for Gig Workers Rising. “We stand to lose money out of this,” Murphy said.
Meanwhile, a lawsuit seeking class action status was filed last week over Uber’s use of its own app to send proProp 22 messages to drivers and passengers.
Messages to drivers contain “false statements and misrepresentations” and suggest that if they fail to express support for the proposition, their jobs will be in jeopardy, the suit claims. “It is a bedrock principle of our democracy that all persons should be free to engage in, or refrain from, political activity without coercion,” according to the suit filed in San Francisco County Superior Court, by two Uber drivers and two advocacy organizations.
Uber in an emailed statement attacked the legal action. “This is an absurd lawsuit, without merit, filed solely for press attention and without regard for the facts,” Uber said.