Turnout of youth voters up, but experts uncertain about the impact

Analysts say youth bloc growth is key, but still not as reliable as older groups

After the Parkland High School shooting in Florida in 2018, members of Generation Z started promising huge voting turnout among their ranks.

Early numbers on both voter registrations and ballots returned in the mail demonstrate they are showing up, and in larger numbers than ever before. But will they prove themselves to be a voting bloc that politicians have to court in the same way they do voters of older generations?

What the numbers show in California so far is complicated.

While the turnout in vote-bymail ballots among Generation Z voters has already exceeded total turnout in 2016 in California, they still won’t make up a huge part of the voting population overall.

“Young people, even with their higher turnout in 2018, were far less likely to participate than those 40 and up,” said Sarah Anzia, a political science professor at UC Berkeley. “Even with increases in turnout that I expect to see in 2020, they’re still far, far below the turnout rates of senior citizens and the middle-aged.”

But that increase in turnout among young voters is still good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans in close races throughout the state, particularly in the 21st Congressional District in the southern San Joaquin Valley, according to Lisa Bryant, a Fresno State political science professor.

It was there that Rep. TJ Cox, D-Fresno, unseated former Rep. David Valadao, a Republican from Hanford, by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2018.

The two now have a rematch, this time with President Donald Trump on the ballot. Any increase in certain left-leaning voter blocs could have an impact in that district.

“Here, a couple hundred votes can be enough to sway an election. That’s happened numerous times in recent history,” Bryant said. “So that could be enough to push Democrats over the edge.”

Trump is deeply unpopular with young voters. Gen Z voters prefer Democratic nominee Joe Biden over Trump by more than 40 points, 64% to 22%, according to an NBC News/Quibi poll conducted in early October.

That could be a drag on Republicans in contested House races across the state.

Aside from Cox and Valadao, Republicans and Democrats are also duking it out in five other House seats in Southern California. Four seats in and around the former Republican stronghold of Orange County are occupied by Democrats elected in 2018, while one north of Los Angeles is held by Republican Rep. Mike Garcia since a special election earlier this year.

Voter registrations for Gen Z in California have nearly tripled since 2016 — from more than 800,000 to over 2.4 million, according to numbers shared by Political Data Inc. Those voters are under age 23.

In the 21st district where Democrat Cox is trying to hang on to his seat, those numbers have also tripled, from about 14,000 to more than 42,000 in 2020.

It’s the same story in California’s 10th Congressional District in the northern San Joaquin Valley, where Republican Ted Howze is challenging Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock.

But voter registrations are only part of the story, especially in California. With the relatively new motor voter law automatically signing young people up to vote when they get a driver’s license, it’s unclear how motivated those young voters will be to turn out on Election Day.

“A lot of young people say they’re going to vote, that they’re interested, but they don’t follow through. This year they also have to figure out how to do it, “Anzia said.

In California, Gen Z has already returned more vote-by-mail ballots in 2020 than they did in 2016, with 23% of Gen Z voters returning ballots as of last Wednesday, compared to 16% returning vote-by-mail ballots in 2016.

Those numbers still don’t compete with the turnout of people over age 50. Statewide, Gen Z voters only represent 11% of the electorate, while those 65 and older represent 33% of the electorate and those 50 to 64 make up 28%, according to Political Data Inc.

“They’ve closed the gap, but only by a little bit,” Anzia said.

The issues that drove young people to vote in the 2018 midterm election that put the House of Representatives in Democratic control have largely remained the same — racism, climate change, and healthcare access/affordability.

R a cism ha s ra n ked higher recently as a top issue by youth overall, according to a June 2020 survey conducted by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, an independent research organization focused on youth civic engagement.

Kellen Edmonson, the field director with Head-Count, a nonprofit voting organization, says younger voters are harnessing their anxieties to create social change.

“I think there is a lot of general anxiety which comes from a few different sources: the fight against racial injustice, climate change, gun violence,” said Edmonson, who is a young voter himself. “We’re seeing young people, especially Gen Z and the younger half of the millennial population, take a leadership role on being on the front lines of those (issues).”

Charlotte Hill, a researcher of voter turnout at UC Berkeley, said those issues are driving more turnout this year because of the visibility of racial protests, wildfires, hurricanes and the coronavirus pandemic.

“Suddenly,” Hill said, “they’re feeling like the things they care about are going to be impacted by the election.”