Can the Cardinal return to relevance?
A lot depends on QB Mills, how team rebounds from 2019
Davis Mills doesn’t have to be Andrew Luck for Stanford to challenge for the division title this season; he doesn’t even half to be 75 percent of Luck.
But he cannot be Ryan Burns. He cannot be Keller Chryst. He cannot be K. J. Costello.
The Stanford quarterback parade over the past five years has followed a familiar course: Early success
followed by stagnation, regression and removal. Burns, Chryst and Costello all played well initially but became less effective the longer they held the job.
Burns started the 2016 opener, beat Kansas State
and USC, but ended his career on the bench. Chryst replaced Burns, looked like the answer, then lost his job and transferred to Tennessee. Costello replaced Chryst in 2017, helped win a division, got hurt, got worse and left for Mississippi State.
None of them managed to sustain. Will Mills break the streak? The Georgia native was the No. 1 Pro Style quarterback recruit in the class of 2017. He has suffered multiple knee injuries — both in high school and at Stanford — but was healthy last season and started six games in place of Costello.
If he’s one of the Pac-12’s best in this short season, Stanford should compete for the North title. If he follows the path of his predecessors, another year of irrelevance awaits the Cardinal.
2019 SEASON >> 4- 8 overall, 3- 6
Pac-12.
HEAD COACH >> David Shaw, 10th season (career and Stanford: 8634 overall/61-24 conference) SHAW’S SEAT TEMPERATURE >>
Cold as deep space
Shaw will leave Stanford when he wants to leave Stanford, and only then. Yes, the program has lost ground in the North, but Shaw is an alum with three Rose Bowl appearances and, according to multiple sources, possesses a contract that’s tantamount to a lifetime deal. He won’t stay forever — the NFL holds enough intrigue that he’ll eventually make the jump. But a second-consecutive sub-.500 season wouldn’t increase the seat heat by a single degree. CONTRACT STATUS >> The length of Shaw’s deal is not known publicly, but he is scheduled to earn $4.8 million this year ( per the USA Today database).
QB CLARITY LEVEL >> Slightly hazy
Mills has the complete package (mobility, accuracy, arm strength) and is plenty familiar with the playbook after three years in the system. But he must stay healthy after suffering multiple ACL tears and needs help from the backs and receivers to stretch the field and provide a quick- strike element. Combine his history of injuries with the lack of an experienced backup, and Stanford is somewhat wobbly in this vital category.
ROSTER GRADE >> C+
The Cardinal might have fallen into the B/B- range but for two major opt outs: left tackle Walker Little and cornerback Paulson Adebo. Without their services, the top- end talent is lacking. Defensive end Thomas Booker and center Drew Dalman are among the best in the conference at their positions, but Stanford is short on proven playmakers. If tackle Foster Sarrell elevates his play, the rest of the offensive line should follow. In theory, that would jump-start a running game that used to rule the league.
PROGRAM TRAJECTORY >> Downward, and accelerating
Stanford’s bowl games in the first portion of the 2010s, in order: Orange, Fiesta, Rose, Rose, Foster Fa r ms, Rose. Stanford’s bowl games the past four years: Sun, Alamo, Sun, none. The 2010-15 success was unsustainable, just as the decline is undeniable. Will Shaw reverse the trend? Or is secondtier status within the division the Cardinal’s new normal? We’ll know a lot more by the middle of December.
Our projections:
Nov. 7: at Oregon
RESULT >> Win.
RECORD >> 1- 0
COMMENT >> Yep, we’re picking an upset in the opener based on Stanford’s continuity at quarterback and offensive line -- Oregon has experienced a complete overhaul at those positions — and the long history of unlikely Cardinal wins over the Ducks. Especially in Eugene.
Nov. 14: vs. Colorado
RESULT >> Win.
RECORD >> 2- 0
COMMENT >> The momentum continues in an empty home stadium (that won’t be much quieter than normal). Should be over by halftime as the Cardinal defense sets the tone.
Nov. 21: vs. Washington St.
RESULT >> Win.
RECORD >> 3- 0.
COMMENT >> The last time Stanford beat WSU, Christian McCaffrey was halfway through one of the greatest seasons in the history of the sport. The four-game losing streak ends, decisively.
Nov. 27 (Friday): at Cal
RESULT >> Loss.
RECORD >> 3-1
COMMENT >> For a rivalry game, Big Game has experienced little back-and-forth in the past quarter century: Stanford won seven in a row starting in the 1990s, then Cal won seven out of eight, then Stanford won nine straight. Did Cal’s victory in 2019 mark the return of series balance? Not yet: The Axe stays in Berkeley. (Oh, and the game should be played at Stanford this year.)
Dec. 5: at Washington
RESULT >> Loss.
RECORD >> 3-2
COMMENT >> The fast start gives way to a midseason skid. Although better than last year, the offense isn’t equipped to thrive against one of the top defenses in the division. Especially when it’s raining at a 45- degree angle.
Dec. 12: vs. Oregon State
RESULT >> Win.
RECORD >> 4-2
COMMENT >> First team to 17 wins. ( That’s Stanford, in the 60th minute.)
Dec. 19: TBA
COMMENT >> No division title — Stanford would lose the tiebreaker to Cal in our scenario — no retaking of the Axe, but a winning season nonetheless.