Voters’ decisions came down to the pandemic versus the economy

As the country faces a dual national crisis — a monthslong pandemic and economic devastation — voters were deeply divided on what mattered more: containing the coronavirus or hustling to rebuild the economy, according to early exit polls released Tuesday.

Their opinion of which was more important fell along starkly partisan lines, with those who viewed the pandemic as the most pressing issue favoring Joe Biden for president, while those who named the economy and jobs leaned toward reelecting President Donald Trump.

Reflecting a pervasive pessimism, nearly two-thirds of voters said they believed that the country was heading in the wrong direction — and those voters overwhelmingly picked Biden.

And while Trump had attempted to focus the campaign on anything other than the pandemic, it clearly remained the defining issue: More than 40% of voters said it was the most important issue deciding their vote, far more than any other issue.

Similarly, if not surprisingly, views on these issues were also deeply divided along partisan lines, with the overwhelming majority of Trump supporters calling the economy excellent or good while an equal share of Biden supporters said it was doing poorly.

Views of the virus also cleaved to politics: Roughly 4 in 5 Trump supporters called it at least somewhat under control, while even more Biden voters said it was “not at all under control.”

Those who reported that the pandemic had taken a personal toll tended to back Biden. More than a third of all voters said they or someone in their household had lost a job or income over the past eight months, and most of those voters favored Biden.

Those who did not vote in 2016, a group that the Trump campaign said would be key to reelection, appeared to show up in significant numbers — but they mostly turned out to oppose him. First-time voters appeared to favor Biden by wide margins.

Far fewer said they knew someone who had died from the virus, but among those who did, the vast majority chose the former vice president.

Moderate voters also swung heavily for Biden, in a tacit rejection of the “radical” label that Trump had sought to pin on him. Throughout his term, Trump has alienated moderates with his rhetoric and was never seen favorably by most independent voters.

It was these voters at the center whom Biden had most aggressively targeted, using a message of unity and American tradition to offer voters a respite from the bombast of the current president, and to push back against the Trump campaign’s portrayal of the Democrat as a tool of the left.

For the first time, not one but two probability- based, scientifically sound voter surveys were conducted amid the election. The exit polls, conducted as usual by Edison Research on behalf of a consortium of news organizations, was carried out by phone with voters who had cast ballots early, and by in-person interviews at voting places.

The Associated Press also conducted its own voter survey, called VoteCast, using a panel of online respondents assembled by NORC, a research group based at the University of Chicago.

Both the AP and the Edison polls were conducted with more than 10,000 respondents, allowing a high level of precision when looking at subgroups within the national electorate, and allowing state-level analysis.