BEAR MARKET
With loads of returning talent, like Garbers, we’re buying into Cal winning North
Imagine a situation in which Oregon or Washington (take your pick) was returning these players:
• Its entire starting offensive line, top tailback and top receiver.
• A quarterback who was undefeated last season in games he started and finished.
• Four all-conference players from one of the best defenses in the conference.
And then imagine if the head coach was returning, the toughest divisional games were at home, and the program had improved its year-over-year win total in each of the previous two seasons.
You’d probably be inclined to pick the Ducks or Huskies to win the North ... and it probably would be an easy call.
Well, we’re picking Cal for exactly the reasons outlined above.
The Bears are have the fewest questions, and the most stability at key positions, in the division.
The case against comparison to Oregon or Washington, of course, is based on recruiting: The Bears haven’t signed as many elite prospects as their
northern neighbors — their ceiling is lower, their margin-for-error thinner.
That case has some validity. Talent matters, as long as it’s maximized. Last we checked, Utah won backto-back South titles with recruiting classes that ranked closer to the bottom of the conference than the top.
Talent matters, but so does the way that talent fits into the system. So does the way it’s developed.
So does leadership and experience and stability. Especially this fall — and particularly at quarterback and offensive line — stability matters. Cal has it.
Cal’s our pick.
2019 SEASON >> 8-5 overall, 4-5 Pac-12.
HEAD COACH >> Justin Wilcox, fourth season (record: 20-18 at Cal and overall)
WILCOX’S SEAT TEMPERATURE >> Two words: liquid nitrogen
Combine Wilcox’s success thus far with the Bears’ budget issues, and he could endure multiple sub-.500 seasons without sliding onto the hot seat. He’s much more likely to eventually leave on his own — perhaps to Oregon, his alma mater — than he is to encounter problems that cannot be solved from one year to the next. In other words, minus-320 degrees Fahrenheit seems about right.
CONTRACT STATUS >> Wilcox is signed through the 2023 season at an average of $3.2 million per season.
QBCLARITY LEVEL >> Excellent (for now)
Why the hesitation? Because junior Chase Garbers has struggled to remain healthy on a weekly basis. When he played at least half the game last year, the Bears were 7- 0. ( That’s right, 7- 0.) He completed a tick over 60 percent of his throws and had almost five touchdowns for every interception. But Garbers missed
four games and portions of two others because of injuries. The return of all five starters up front increases the likelihood that he’ll remain healthy and is, in turn, central to our projection for the Bears.
ROSTER GRADE >> C+
The Bears are not oozing 2021 draft picks on either side of the ball, particularly at the skill positions. Tailback Christopher Brown is steady. Receiver Nikko Remigio is solid. Same with the offensive line. The talent scale, once again, tips to the defense — especially linebackers Cameron Goode and Kuony Deng and cornerback Cam Bynum. ( The loss of tackle Luc Bequette to Boston College was significant.) But on both sides of the ball and across all position groups, Cal’s personnel plays as close to its potential as any in the conference. PROGRAM TRAJECTORY >> Steady ascent
The win totals in three seasons under Wilcox paint the picture well: five, then seven, then eight. But improvement gets vastly more difficult from here — and not just because Cal is only playing seven games this fall. Recruiting is on the uptick, it appears. But the Bears must make additional upgrades, especially at the skill positions — and for several consecutive recruiting cycles — in order to make the leap to double- digit wins.
Our projections ...
Saturday: vs. Washington
RESULT >> Win. RECORD >> 1- 0 COMMENT >> Two years ago, the Bears escaped with a 12-10 win in Berkeley. Last year, they survived 20-19 in the delayed game in Husky Stadium. Their third consecutive victory over UW won’t come down to the final drive.
Nov. 14: at Arizona State
RESULT >> Loss. RECORD >> 1-1 COMMENT >> Both teams are coming
off huge openers against division rivals — the Sun Devils visit USC in Week 1 — and the focus could be wobbly on both sides. But we expect a riveting finish in what could be a preview of the conference championship.
Nov. 21: at Oregon State
RESULT >> Loss. RECORD >> 1-2 COMMENT >> The Beavers won last year in Berkeley while Garbers was injured. He plays this time, but the result is the same and desperation sets in as Big Game arrives.
Nov. 27 (Friday): vs. Stanford
RESULT >> Win. RECORD >> 2-2 COMMENT >> Total points scored in the three Wilcox vs. David Shaw matchups: Cal 51, Stanford 60. Expect another close, low- scoring affair that — no matter how it ends — will not feature the winning team’s students charging onto the field. (Oh, and it should be played at Stanford this year.)
Dec. 5: vs. Oregon
RESULT >> Win. RECORD >> 3-2 COMMENT >> Wilcox beats his alma mater for the first time. It is neither decisive nor clean. But when it ends, the Bears control the division.
Dec. 12: at Washington State
RESULT >> Win. RECORD >> 4-2 COMMENT >> With the stakes higher than at any point since the mid-Tedford era, Cal handles its business methodically in the frigid Pullman air.
Dec. 19: Pac-12 championship game
RESULT >> N/A. RECORD >> N/A COMMENT >> This is where we remind long-suffering Cal fans that the Rose Bowl is part of the playoff, and the Pac-12 champion, assuming it’s not in the top four, is headed for the Fiesta or Peach bowls.