Are the Raiders playoff contenders? We’ll find out as AFC West title run begins against Chargers.
The Raiders reach the midway point of the season today with a three-game stretch during which they can stand up and be counted as legitimate playoff contenders and a factor in the AFC West.
The last time the Raiders won their division was 2002, their third title in three years. And even with a win in the bank against four- time defending division champion Kansas City, it’s an outside shot at best for 2020, given the Raiders’ 4-3 record and with the Super Bowl champion Chiefs at 7-1.
With the next three games coming within the division, the Raiders can at least lay claim to the most likely second playoff team ahead of the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos.
First up are the Chargers at Sofi Stadium, followed by Denver and the Chiefs, with the latter two games at Allegiant Stadium.
The Chargers are a dangerous 2-5 in that they’ve shown the ability to build big leads only to fritter them away. For four straight games, the Chargers have lost after leading by at least 16 points — an NFL record for heartbreak.
To Raiders coach Jon Gruden, that means the Chargers are due.
“I don’t look past the Chargers at all,” Gruden said. “They had the Buccaneers down 24-7. They had the Saints down 20-3. They had the Chiefs beat. They had them third-and-20 and lost the game ... we’re just trying to figure out how to put our best foot forward again. It’s a great opportunity, but if we look any farther ahead than (today), we’re not very smart.”
R aiders quar terback Derek Carr sees what Gruden does, as well as the occasionally unpredictable nature of division games — including his first NFL win as a rookie in 2014.
“I’ve been on an 0-10 team when we beat the Chiefs,” Carr said. “When you’re in the division, at any moment someone can beat somebody. You have to have a great week and bring it on game day. Because if you don’t, you know each other too well.”
Five ways the Raiders can beat the Chargers and be halfway to 10 wins at the midway point of the season:
1. CONTROL JUSTIN HERBERT >> Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, the sixth pick in this year’s draft out of Oregon, is running neck and neck with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow as the NFL’S Offensive Rookie of the Year. His numbers measure up to those of Carr other than having three more interceptions.
The Raiders need to confuse Herbert with coverages and jump-start a meager pass rush that has just seven sacks in seven games.
“He’s got a strong arm, he’s hit a lot of deep balls,” Raiders defensive coordinator Paul Guenther said. “He’s been acting like a veteran player. He’s got a lot of good guys around him to get the ball to as well.”
It will be up to cornerbacks Trayvon Mullen and Nevin Lawson to deal with wideouts Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, and linebacker Cory Littleton and the Raiders’ safeties will have their hands full with tight end Hunter Henry.
Herbert trusts his receivers, and there should be opportunities for takeaways. The Raiders’ minus- 4 turnover margin is something that must be improved if they hope to contend.
2. RE-ESTABLISH THE PASSING GAME >> Carr operated well in the brutal Cleveland conditions of high winds, frozen rain and snow, playing it safe as any pass more than 10 yards downfield was a turnover waiting to happen.
He won’t have to dial it back like that again until possibly Dec. 6 in New Jersey against the Jets. The next four games (and seven of the last nine) are indoors.
It’s time for the Raiders to stretch their legs.
Henry Ruggs III wasn’t a factor against Cleveland because of the weather, and eager to make amends for being called out by Gruden for not getting open against Tampa Bay. Bryan Edwards, a fellow rookie who has been out since Week 3 with a high ankle sprain, will return. Along with tight end Darren Waller, slot receiver Hunter Renfrow and veteran Nelson Agholor, that’s a lot of targets for Carr to get busy against.
Waller has 45 receptions but can do better than an anemic 8.3 yards per catch.
The Chargers were lit up by Denver’s Drew Lock in their last loss. It’s also likely that Joey Bosa, the Chargers’ best pass rusher, will be out because of concussion symptoms. That enables the blocking schemes to concentrate on Melvin Ingram, who can attack from anywhere.
3. KEEP IT BALANCED >> Even if the Raiders have a good day passing the ball, they’re at their best with something approaching a 50-50 split. There probably won’t be a repeat of the 45- carry effort against the Browns and Josh Jacobs isn’t likely to carry it 31 times. The only back that has carried the ball more than Jacobs is Derrick Henry, and Gruden should be looking for opportunities to integrate Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard with more frequency.
A lot of what happens with the Raiders depends on the availability of Kolton Miller. Miller has started all 39 games in his NFL career and hasn’t missed a snap in the last 29, but he didn’t practice all week with an ankle sprain. If Miller is out and the tackles are Sam Young and Brandon Parker, the more the Raiders can run the better.
4. DEFENSIVE PROGRESS >> The Raiders held Cleveland to 223 yards and at least partially had the weather to thank for it. With the sevenof-nine finish in terms of indoor games coming up, there will be no help from the weather gods.
The Raiders have been reasonably stout against the run aside from the Week 3 debacle in New England. Other than that, it’s tough to find an area where you can be really confident about the Raiders’ defense going forward. Even their lone takeaway against Cleveland came with linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski trailing a play and causing a fumble which came after a gain. It’s not as if the Raiders have spent much time winning big at the line of scrimmage and residing in the backfield of the opponent.
More and more the Raiders have been banking on Johnathan Abram as their defensive heartbeat. A big play or three would make a huge difference against the Chargers.
5. THE FERRELL FACTOR >> Still grumbling about the Raiders spending a No. 4 overall pick on Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell in the 2019 draft? A guy who’s been OK at times but hasn’t jumped off the page as a difference-maker?
Put it aside for a week. Against the Chargers, Ferrell has looked like that guy.
In two games as a rookie, Ferrell logged 3 1/2 sacks against the Chargers. In his other 20 games in the NFL, Ferrell has one sack.
With Maurice Hurst out with an ankle injury, Ferrell may be needed more at defensive tackle than at end. And it doesn’t matter, really. He’s been trained from the outset to play both outside and inside. He may not ever live up to anyone’s expectations as the fourth pick in the draft, but if he keeps dominating against the Chargers, that’s all that matters in Week 9.