Can Raiders solve coach Reid’s post-bye week magic touch?
At its core, football is a game of exploiting advantages. And we’re about to experience one of greatest mismatches the NFL has seen over the past 20 years: Coaching savant Andy Reid operating with an extra week of game preparation.
Reid’s teams have been tough enough to beat under normal circumstances, but it’s been nearly impossible to beat them following their bye week. The Chiefs coach, a master of manipulating and tweaking his vast playbook during the extra time, has won all but three of the 21 games his teams played immediately after their bye.
Two of those post-bye losses during Reid’s 22-year career came against teams that were unbeaten.
Toss in his 5-2 postseason record after a week off — including a Super Bowl win over the 49ers— and you understand Reid’s been playing with a near unbeatable hand.
Asked to explain how he’s been able to win 86% of those games, Reid wouldn’t provide
much of an answer.
“I would say that I have good coaches and good players, and I think that’s probably it,” Reid said at the end of last season. “I don’t know why that has happened. It’s just one of those things, I think.”
Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes thinks there’s another reason for their rejuvenated play. Reid does a good job of making sure they get plenty of rest.
“That’s something he’s really mastered throughout the years,” Mahomes said. “He’s got a good feel for it and understands how to make sure our heads are still in the game.”
Whatever it is, it’s not a reassuring trend for the Raiders, who host Reid’s Chiefs Sunday and are growing accustomed to drawing the tough post-bye assignment against Kansas City. This will mark the fourth time in the last five seasons the Raiders will play the Chiefs after their bye.
“I’m sure that’s just a coincidence ... you know, I’m sure that’s a coincidence,” Raiders coach Jon Gruden said, while using a dramatic pause Monday to allow his sarcasm to come through loud and clear. “I don’t know. I don’t think about it. The schedule is the schedule. You have to adapt to it and that’s what we’ll do.”
C onspira cie s a side, Gruden is keenly aware of the damage Reid can do with longer study periods. The Chiefs scored 40 points in each of their last two years while handing the Raiders some post-bye blues.
The Raiders, though, will share at least one characteristic of nearly all of the last 10 teams to face Reid after a bye — they’re winners. Only Gruden’s 2018 squad and the 2017 Giants had losing records when facing the Chiefs the past decade. And, having extra time to prepare for good teams has certainly paid off for Reid.
“His preparation is legendary,” Gruden said. “I know he’s going to do thorough preparation.”
One film featured on Reid’s watch list this past week was the footage from the Chiefs’ surprising Week 5 loss to the Raiders, who stunned his team 40-32 in Kansas City.
Reid has also been known for spending his “week off” poring over his game plan and self-scouting his own team to detect any hint of predictability in their schemes.
If we noticed the Chiefs’ first two scripted plays in both of their recent postbye games against the Raiders were a quick, short pass to tight end Travis Kelce followed by an end around to one of their receivers, we’re fairly certain Reid’s already addressed it.
Meanwhile, Gr uden didn’t have much time to savor the Raiders’ win over Denver. He and his staff are already deep in their own preparations for what should be their biggest test in years.
“It’ll be a juggernaut coming in here Sunday,” Gruden said. “We’ll just have to have a great week of practice and do the best we can.”
Three reasons for hope
BULLY BALL COULD WORK AGAIN >> The Raiders bullied their way past the Chiefs earlier this season, using their punishing offensive
line, Josh Jacobs (77 yards, two TD runs) and Devontae Booker (62 yards on 7 carries) to account for 144 rushing yards while dominating the time of possession — they held the ball for 35:18, or 11 more minutes than Kansas City. The 144 yards permitted were just the fifth most surrendered this year by the Chiefs’ forgiving defense. The numbers since then indicate a repeat performance could be possible. The Raiders, the league’s seventh-best running team with an average of 139.2 yards per game, face a Chiefs defense that’s allowed the fourth-most yardage per game (138.4).
TROUBLE ON THE LINE? >> The Chiefs placed left tackle Eric Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz of Cal — as well as backup lineman Martinas Rankin— on the COVID-19/reserve list in a surprising announcement Monday. While the Raiders wouldn’t mind facing the Chiefs minus their starting tackles, it’s too early in the week to know whether either will have to miss the game. Both Fisher and Schwartz are big reasons why the Chiefs’ offensive line has permitted just 12 sacks and is the sixth-best pass protection unit in the league, according to Football Outsiders. The good news for both Schwartz and Fisher is that neither tested positive for COVID, but they were flagged for being in close contact with someone who did test positive. All three linemen must stay away from the team for at least five days, which means they certainly could play Sunday, should they continue to test negative. The 31-year- old Schwartz already had his impressive streak of starting 141 straight games snapped earlier this season when a back injury forced him to miss a game.
LITTLE RETURN ON BIG CONTRACTS? >> Kansas City has shelled out huge deals to pass rushers Chris Jones ($85 million) and Frank Clark ($62.3 million), whose contracts could be worth as much as $147.3 million. For that investment, the Chiefs still find themselves lacking a consistent pass rush. The Chiefs’ pass rush is just 18th in the league with 19 sacks and they’re also 18th in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. Jones has a team-leading 5.5 sacks to go with a league-leading 10 quarterback knockdowns. Clark has four sacks and six knockdowns. The inconsistencies up front have prompted defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to send more troops at the quarterback. Thus, the Chiefs are blitzing on a whopping 37.2% of the time, third-most in the NFL behind the Bucs (43.8%) and Steelers (43.3%). Of course, sending extra rushers means more pressure on the secondary to handle their one- on- one responsibilities. Any breakdowns can lead to big plays in the passing game, like the Raiders proved when they had three pass plays of 40 or more yards against K.C.
Three reasons for pessimism
KELCE’S THEIR UNSOLVABLE MYSTERY >> Like clockwork, Chiefs All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce continues to annihilate the Raiders defense. He had eight catches for 108 yards and a touchdown in the Week 5 loss to the Raiders, proving it doesn’t matter if it’s Cory Littleton or Lamarcus Joyner guarding him, no Raider can stop him. Kelce has been unreal against the Raiders the last two years — he has 37 catches for 535 yards and four TDs against Paul Guenther’s unit. Kelce has topped the 100-yard receiving mark in five of his last eight games against the Raiders. Want even worse news? He’s really heating up now. In his two games before the bye, Kelce and Mahomes hooked up for 18 receptions for 268 yards. The sure-handed Kelce leads the league with 58 catches without a drop this season.
A SHUTDOWN CORNER IN KANSAS CITY? >> In his seventh season, cornerback Bashaud Breeland is enjoying arguably his best season thus far. After a rough 2019 season, he’s now third in the NFL while allowing just a 47.3 passer rating, according to Pro Football Focus. Breeland, who made his season debut against the Raiders in Week 5, picked off Derek Carr and has now given up just 79 passing yards in five games. In fact, the Chiefs cornerbacks as a whole have been quite a revelation this season -- they have an NFLbest 79.3 coverage grade, according to PFF.com. However, Carr already demonstrated he’s able to find holes in the Chiefs’ secondary. He went 22-of-31 for a seasonhigh 347 yards against Kansas City, which included his two longest TD passes of the season -- a 59-yarder to Nelson Agholor and a 72-yarder to Henry Ruggs III. Carr became the first Raiders quarterback to connect on two 50-yard TD passes since 1996. The question is whether he can beat Kansas City’s secondary again? HILL EVEN MORE DANGEROUS >> The Raiders felt good about how they defended Tyreek Hill in their first meeting, even though he caught three passes for 78 yards (26.0 yards per catch). They did something a lot of teams haven’t been able to do this season -- keep him out of the end zone. The ultra-fast wide receiver has been especially dangerous in his last three games. Hill is coming off back-to-back games with two touchdown catches, including his season-high nine catches for 113 yards in a win over Carolina before the bye. Hill has scored at least one touchdown in three straight games and, in fact, has been held without a touchdown in just two of Kansas City’s nine games. The Raiders snapped Hill’s touchdown streak at four games last time.